Season start delayed

Discuss all things Wigan Warriors. Comments and opinions on all aspects of the club's performance are welcome.
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Mike
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Mike » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:33 am

morley pie eater wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:35 pm
...if we chip in 50p each on here that should cover it.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

I think 5p would be enough. Even 10,000 at 5p = £500!
I think in this aussie style arrangement catalans wouldn't be playing at all. Look at the aussie open tennis.

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Mike
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Mike » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:39 am

Personally, I'm optimistic the vaccine will allow crowds to come back this year. I think a March timeline is way too optimistic though. Looking at data from Israel where they are ahead of everyone else in vaccination, you'll have to wait several weeks or even months for the vaccine effect to be seen in hospitalisation figures. Those are the ones that are going to affect how the government beings us out of lockdown. So I'd say mid to late April for some relaxation and May for crowds back? Something like that's my guess. I hope anyway!

Wintergreen
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Wintergreen » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:25 am

Mike wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:39 am
Personally, I'm optimistic the vaccine will allow crowds to come back this year. I think a March timeline is way too optimistic though. Looking at data from Israel where they are ahead of everyone else in vaccination, you'll have to wait several weeks or even months for the vaccine effect to be seen in hospitalisation figures. Those are the ones that are going to affect how the government beings us out of lockdown. So I'd say mid to late April for some relaxation and May for crowds back? Something like that's my guess. I hope anyway!
Maybe, but being seen and actually being there are two different things. That's my view and why I feel March could be see lot's of freedoms restored (including attendance at sporting events).

Although you might not see the effect immediately, a vaccine in the high risk groups (along with warmer weather) will inevitably lead to a reduction in hospital admissions. The full effect will be visible over the subsequent couple of months.

The key point is that this will happen irrespective of whether we are still in a full lockdown or not and therefore why prolong the economic, fiscal and mental agony? I don't think they will.

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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Wintergreen » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:42 am

To back up my point. These are the numbers of people who died with Covid being mentioned on the death certificate (bear in mind they could have died of other things as well as having Covid- you could get hit by a bus whilst being positive for Covid and still get included in these figures).

They are slightly out of date but the latest available from the ONS.

Deaths by age group
<1 0%
1-4 0%
5-9 0%
10-14 0%
15-19 0%
20-24 0%
25-29 0%
30-34 0%
35-39 0%
40-44 0%
45-49 1%
50-54 2%
55-59 3%
60-64 4%
65-69 6%
70-74 9%
75-79 14%
80-84 19%
85-89 20%
90+ 22%


Or to put it another way something like 90% of the deaths are over 65's.

Immunise this group and you are pretty much there in terms of risk.

Put 65 and over into an online calculator and :

Given a vaccination rate of 2,100,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 12/02/2021 and 22/02/2021.

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Re: Season start delayed

Post by morley pie eater » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:44 am

I don't want to sound too negative.....but......a top epidemiologist recently said "Forget 2021"!
Sign the change.org petition to recognise Roy Francis' contribution to RL at
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by morley pie eater » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:55 am

Wintergreen wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:42 am
To back up my point. These are the numbers of people who died with Covid being mentioned on the death certificate (bear in mind they could have died of other things as well as having Covid- you could get hit by a bus whilst being positive for Covid and still get included in these figures).

They are slightly out of date but the latest available from the ONS.

Deaths by age group
<1 0%
1-4 0%
5-9 0%
10-14 0%
15-19 0%
20-24 0%
25-29 0%
30-34 0%
35-39 0%
40-44 0%
45-49 1%
50-54 2%
55-59 3%
60-64 4%
65-69 6%
70-74 9%
75-79 14%
80-84 19%
85-89 20%
90+ 22%


Or to put it another way something like 90% of the deaths are over 65's.

Immunise this group and you are pretty much there in terms of risk.

Put 65 and over into an online calculator and :

Given a vaccination rate of 2,100,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 12/02/2021 and 22/02/2021.
"....pretty much there in terms of risk"...of death. But not of spread or of "long Covid" or effects short of death on under-65s.

I'm not disagreeing with your figures, but I think SAGE and gov will base their decision on more than just death figures. For example, as many of the older population affected have been in care homes, that means the percentage of under 75s in hospital is relatively higher than the death rate for that age group.

From today's Guardian:
43% of the tens of thousands of ICU admissions since September have been people below the age of 60, and nearly 20% of admissions have been under 50.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... cock-covid
Sign the change.org petition to recognise Roy Francis' contribution to RL at
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Flash » Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:57 am

pedro wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:45 pm
pretty prepared since the work on HIV has increased the understanding on virus's
The one thing we absolutely weren't is "prepared". What has occurred is the very definition of "unprepared". I think you need the assistance of a dictionary.

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Re: Season start delayed

Post by pedro » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:08 am

Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:57 am
pedro wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:45 pm
pretty prepared since the work on HIV has increased the understanding on virus's
The one thing we absolutely weren't is "prepared". What has occurred is the very definition of "unprepared". I think you need the assistance of a dictionary.
.The work done on HIV allowed the work on a vaccine to take shorter amount of time...thus being prepared, I suggest you learn to read.
http://www.speedtest.net/result/1857407490.png

Flash
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Flash » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:14 am

In fact, here's a recent report from the GPMB, who prepare studies for the WHO and World Bank among others, that outlines that, not only were we totally unprepared for Covid 19, but that we haven't learned the lessons and are equally unprepared for future pandemics. You might find it illuminating.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09- ... d-pandemic

Alternatively, Google "Covid 19 + unprepared" and see the opinion of every official body in the world. Then tell me again how "pretty prepared" we were

Flash
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Flash » Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:19 am

pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:08 am
Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:57 am
pedro wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:45 pm
pretty prepared since the work on HIV has increased the understanding on virus's
The one thing we absolutely weren't is "prepared". What has occurred is the very definition of "unprepared". I think you need the assistance of a dictionary.
.The work done on HIV allowed the work on a vaccine to take shorter amount of time...thus being prepared, I suggest you learn to read.
Every scientific advance that's ever been made contributes. We still weren't prepared. You won't find a single reputable body that says we were.

It's utterly ridiculous to suggest we were "pretty prepared".

Locked