Season start delayed

Discuss all things Wigan Warriors. Comments and opinions on all aspects of the club's performance are welcome.
pedro
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Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 9:37 pm

Re: Season start delayed

Post by pedro » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:03 pm

Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:19 am
pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:08 am
Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:57 am


The one thing we absolutely weren't is "prepared". What has occurred is the very definition of "unprepared". I think you need the assistance of a dictionary.
.The work done on HIV allowed the work on a vaccine to take shorter amount of time...thus being prepared, I suggest you learn to read.
Every scientific advance that's ever been made contributes. We still weren't prepared. You won't find a single reputable body that says we were.

It's utterly ridiculous to suggest we were "pretty prepared".
whats ridiculous is to suggest the speed in which the vaccine was prepared and tested meant we wasnt prepared, go find out how long it used to take to engineer, make, test and roll out a vaccine. The work done on HIV has been ground breaking in the way virus are pulled apart and examined.
http://www.speedtest.net/result/1857407490.png

Levrier
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Levrier » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:10 pm

We seem to be getting different versions of what prepared means. If by prepared then you mean that we have better tools at our disposal now to develop and manufacture responses to some threats then yes we were more prepared than in the past. If however you mean that as a country/ group of countries we were organised in such a way to minimise the danger to both the public health and the economic outcome of the threat then we were woefully under prepared with almost criminal negligence from the political class. I am not in favour of technocracy but I can certainly see the weakness in having a buffoon in charge.

Flash
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:45 am

Re: Season start delayed

Post by Flash » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:32 pm

pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:03 pm
Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:19 am
pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:08 am


.The work done on HIV allowed the work on a vaccine to take shorter amount of time...thus being prepared, I suggest you learn to read.
Every scientific advance that's ever been made contributes. We still weren't prepared. You won't find a single reputable body that says we were.

It's utterly ridiculous to suggest we were "pretty prepared".
whats ridiculous is to suggest the speed in which the vaccine was prepared and tested meant we wasnt prepared, go find out how long it used to take to engineer, make, test and roll out a vaccine. The work done on HIV has been ground breaking in the way virus are pulled apart and examined.
Reducing, in small part, the effects of being unprepared does not then equate to being prepared!

If you wanted to argue that we are prepared for flu each year as we develop, in advance, vaccines for the anticipated strains that are likely to mutate, then I would agree. Finding a vaccine more quickly after the event however is most definitely not the same as being prepared!

As I said earlier, I think you require the assistance of a dictionary.

pedro
Posts: 4351
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 9:37 pm

Re: Season start delayed

Post by pedro » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:46 pm

Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:32 pm
pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:03 pm
Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:19 am

Every scientific advance that's ever been made contributes. We still weren't prepared. You won't find a single reputable body that says we were.

It's utterly ridiculous to suggest we were "pretty prepared".
whats ridiculous is to suggest the speed in which the vaccine was prepared and tested meant we wasnt prepared, go find out how long it used to take to engineer, make, test and roll out a vaccine. The work done on HIV has been ground breaking in the way virus are pulled apart and examined.
Reducing, in small part, the effects of being unprepared does not then equate to being prepared!

If you wanted to argue that we are prepared for flu each year as we develop, in advance, vaccines for the anticipated strains that are likely to mutate, then I would agree. Finding a vaccine more quickly after the event however is most definitely not the same as being prepared!

As I said earlier, I think you require the assistance of a dictionary.
flu happens every year and they know it mutates so can prepare but you accept that but you cant accept that a new virus came out and we had a vaccine developed tested and started to roll out in less than 12 months and that the scientific community wasnt prepared to battle a new virus? .....think you need a lie down
http://www.speedtest.net/result/1857407490.png

jobo
Posts: 3154
Joined: Sun Oct 27, 2002 1:33 pm

Re: Season start delayed

Post by jobo » Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:45 pm

pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:46 pm
Flash wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:32 pm
pedro wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:03 pm


whats ridiculous is to suggest the speed in which the vaccine was prepared and tested meant we wasnt prepared, go find out how long it used to take to engineer, make, test and roll out a vaccine. The work done on HIV has been ground breaking in the way virus are pulled apart and examined.
Reducing, in small part, the effects of being unprepared does not then equate to being prepared!

If you wanted to argue that we are prepared for flu each year as we develop, in advance, vaccines for the anticipated strains that are likely to mutate, then I would agree. Finding a vaccine more quickly after the event however is most definitely not the same as being prepared!

As I said earlier, I think you require the assistance of a dictionary.
flu happens every year and they know it mutates so can prepare but you accept that but you cant accept that a new virus came out and we had a vaccine developed tested and started to roll out in less than 12 months and that the scientific community wasnt prepared to battle a new virus? .....think you need a lie down
Time to stop digging I'd say 😯

Exiled Wiganer
Posts: 2057
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:18 pm

Re: Season start delayed

Post by Exiled Wiganer » Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:58 pm

Levrier wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:10 pm
We seem to be getting different versions of what prepared means. If by prepared then you mean that we have better tools at our disposal now to develop and manufacture responses to some threats then yes we were more prepared than in the past. If however you mean that as a country/ group of countries we were organised in such a way to minimise the danger to both the public health and the economic outcome of the threat then we were woefully under prepared with almost criminal negligence from the political class. I am not in favour of technocracy but I can certainly see the weakness in having a buffoon in charge.
I suspect we are moving into politics there. Your opinion is your opinion, of course.

Oddly enough, we were independently rated as well prepared for what we thought was the likeliest pandemic (flu, iirc?), but it was as much use as the guns facing the wrong way in Singapore. As to preparedness for putting a vaccine together, from what I have read about the Oxford one, they had already pretty much done the work in advance for a generic COVID vaccine.

I would put my money on science having the answers. There is also the other game changing side of this, which is getting less coverage, but is just as valuable - we are at the forefront of developing early tests and treatments for this. Some of the progress we are making there is astonishing. It is worth stressing that we have been since day 1 the most scientific country in the world in our analysis of the effectiveness of treatments, and have been at the forefront of all of those which are already saving thousands of lives around the world. (Despite any buffoonery.) It’s like when we had Kenny and Ferguson - if the vaccines won’t save us, the treatments will.

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Mike
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Mike » Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:30 pm

Wintergreen wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:25 am
Mike wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:39 am
Personally, I'm optimistic the vaccine will allow crowds to come back this year. I think a March timeline is way too optimistic though. Looking at data from Israel where they are ahead of everyone else in vaccination, you'll have to wait several weeks or even months for the vaccine effect to be seen in hospitalisation figures. Those are the ones that are going to affect how the government beings us out of lockdown. So I'd say mid to late April for some relaxation and May for crowds back? Something like that's my guess. I hope anyway!
Maybe, but being seen and actually being there are two different things. That's my view and why I feel March could be see lot's of freedoms restored (including attendance at sporting events).

Although you might not see the effect immediately, a vaccine in the high risk groups (along with warmer weather) will inevitably lead to a reduction in hospital admissions. The full effect will be visible over the subsequent couple of months.

The key point is that this will happen irrespective of whether we are still in a full lockdown or not and therefore why prolong the economic, fiscal and mental agony? I don't think they will.
I reckon whats controlling the lockdown is hospitalisation rate and capacty. IMO they'll wait until the rate is going down and capacity has recovered enough to deal with another unexpected surge before starting to unroll the lockdown. The hopsital capacity figures will lag at least 2-4 weeks behind the vaccine having taken effect, and we might need to see over 60s fully vaccinated before the rate really goes down. I doubt very much that they will undo lockdown on the prediction that number should start coming down soon. I'd say they'll have to wait until they actually do come down. We'll see though.

IMO the government isn't trying to stop the virus spreading to reduce cases and deaths to zero because that's way too hard at this point, its trying to keep the levels down to the point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed and so when you do get it, you'll get treated properly. If you die, you die, but at least you had a hospital bed and a decent shot at treatment. TBH its probalby the only way to manage trade offs between health and econonmy where we are now. The current lockdown came in because the politicians just couldn't argue with the surging case predictions from the new variant - if they hadn't locked down there would be no beds left and people dying without treatment. They left it until the last minute to decide though, which is daft, because 2-3 days delay locking down = something like 2-4 weeks extra time in lockdown, so in the end you damage the economy much more. Decisive is something that this lot are not!

The vaccine being roll out really has me impatient to see the end of this, but i'm trying to stay realistic so i'm not too disapointed when my July holiday is cancelled... The future looks like repeated rounds of vaccination for different strains and booster shots for many years to come at the moment, probably with local lockdowns and travel restrictions every time cases look like overwhelming local hospitals. :|

Charriots Offiah
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Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:14 pm

Re: Season start delayed

Post by Charriots Offiah » Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:25 am

Mike wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:30 pm
Wintergreen wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:25 am
Mike wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:39 am
Personally, I'm optimistic the vaccine will allow crowds to come back this year. I think a March timeline is way too optimistic though. Looking at data from Israel where they are ahead of everyone else in vaccination, you'll have to wait several weeks or even months for the vaccine effect to be seen in hospitalisation figures. Those are the ones that are going to affect how the government beings us out of lockdown. So I'd say mid to late April for some relaxation and May for crowds back? Something like that's my guess. I hope anyway!
Maybe, but being seen and actually being there are two different things. That's my view and why I feel March could be see lot's of freedoms restored (including attendance at sporting events).

Although you might not see the effect immediately, a vaccine in the high risk groups (along with warmer weather) will inevitably lead to a reduction in hospital admissions. The full effect will be visible over the subsequent couple of months.

The key point is that this will happen irrespective of whether we are still in a full lockdown or not and therefore why prolong the economic, fiscal and mental agony? I don't think they will.
I reckon whats controlling the lockdown is hospitalisation rate and capacty. IMO they'll wait until the rate is going down and capacity has recovered enough to deal with another unexpected surge before starting to unroll the lockdown. The hopsital capacity figures will lag at least 2-4 weeks behind the vaccine having taken effect, and we might need to see over 60s fully vaccinated before the rate really goes down. I doubt very much that they will undo lockdown on the prediction that number should start coming down soon. I'd say they'll have to wait until they actually do come down. We'll see though.

IMO the government isn't trying to stop the virus spreading to reduce cases and deaths to zero because that's way too hard at this point, its trying to keep the levels down to the point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed and so when you do get it, you'll get treated properly. If you die, you die, but at least you had a hospital bed and a decent shot at treatment. TBH its probalby the only way to manage trade offs between health and econonmy where we are now. The current lockdown came in because the politicians just couldn't argue with the surging case predictions from the new variant - if they hadn't locked down there would be no beds left and people dying without treatment. They left it until the last minute to decide though, which is daft, because 2-3 days delay locking down = something like 2-4 weeks extra time in lockdown, so in the end you damage the economy much more. Decisive is something that this lot are not!

The vaccine being roll out really has me impatient to see the end of this, but i'm trying to stay realistic so i'm not too disapointed when my July holiday is cancelled... The future looks like repeated rounds of vaccination for different strains and booster shots for many years to come at the moment, probably with local lockdowns and travel restrictions every time cases look like overwhelming local hospitals. :|
We were also told that the NHS knew how better to treat the virus and as a consequence less people would die, that statement is not supported by the facts!

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Mike
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Re: Season start delayed

Post by Mike » Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:13 am

Charriots Offiah wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:25 am
Mike wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:30 pm
Wintergreen wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:25 am


Maybe, but being seen and actually being there are two different things. That's my view and why I feel March could be see lot's of freedoms restored (including attendance at sporting events).

Although you might not see the effect immediately, a vaccine in the high risk groups (along with warmer weather) will inevitably lead to a reduction in hospital admissions. The full effect will be visible over the subsequent couple of months.

The key point is that this will happen irrespective of whether we are still in a full lockdown or not and therefore why prolong the economic, fiscal and mental agony? I don't think they will.
I reckon whats controlling the lockdown is hospitalisation rate and capacty. IMO they'll wait until the rate is going down and capacity has recovered enough to deal with another unexpected surge before starting to unroll the lockdown. The hopsital capacity figures will lag at least 2-4 weeks behind the vaccine having taken effect, and we might need to see over 60s fully vaccinated before the rate really goes down. I doubt very much that they will undo lockdown on the prediction that number should start coming down soon. I'd say they'll have to wait until they actually do come down. We'll see though.

IMO the government isn't trying to stop the virus spreading to reduce cases and deaths to zero because that's way too hard at this point, its trying to keep the levels down to the point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed and so when you do get it, you'll get treated properly. If you die, you die, but at least you had a hospital bed and a decent shot at treatment. TBH its probalby the only way to manage trade offs between health and econonmy where we are now. The current lockdown came in because the politicians just couldn't argue with the surging case predictions from the new variant - if they hadn't locked down there would be no beds left and people dying without treatment. They left it until the last minute to decide though, which is daft, because 2-3 days delay locking down = something like 2-4 weeks extra time in lockdown, so in the end you damage the economy much more. Decisive is something that this lot are not!

The vaccine being roll out really has me impatient to see the end of this, but i'm trying to stay realistic so i'm not too disapointed when my July holiday is cancelled... The future looks like repeated rounds of vaccination for different strains and booster shots for many years to come at the moment, probably with local lockdowns and travel restrictions every time cases look like overwhelming local hospitals. :|
We were also told that the NHS knew how better to treat the virus and as a consequence less people would die, that statement is not supported by the facts!
Fewer people as a proportion of those that go to hospital, not an absolute number fewer. It depends on the hopsitalisation rate.

Better treatments and saving more lives is definitely a good thing. The side-effect of better treatments (for leaving lock down - not for saving lives) may be that people having better treatments could result in more people staying in hospital for longer because they don't die as quicky, they either survive longer, or recover and are discharged and so hospital capacity stays tied up for longer so you have to wait longer to loosen lockdown. Note the "may" and "could" in that sentence - maybe its a big effect, maybe its not noticable. The only sure-fire way is to reduce the numbers going into hospital in the first place.

fozzieskem
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Joined: Sat May 14, 2016 10:54 am

Re: Season start delayed

Post by fozzieskem » Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:21 am

https://www.scotsman.com/health/corona ... id-3109992

Interesting read and not the first time I’ve read or heard this about the Oxford vaccine

Locked