League position predictor

Discuss all things Wigan Warriors. Comments and opinions on all aspects of the club's performance are welcome.
Jonathon Kerr (JK)
Posts: 193
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:29 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by Jonathon Kerr (JK) »

Given Cats have now wrapped up the League Leaders Shield, what’s the chances of them travelling for the final league game against us? We could do with a week off and a 24-0 victory would be nice.


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morley pie eater
Posts: 3220
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 2:01 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by morley pie eater »

Charriots Offiah wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:05 pm
morley pie eater wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:50 pm Here's the "table" updated after Magic results.

It's on the assumption that all play 2 more games, so the columns are final percentage with 0/1/2 wins. Any draws would give a different result!

CATS: 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0
WAR: 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0
LDS: 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 47.8 / 52.2 / 57.6
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0
HKR: 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
We are now guaranteed to finish above Hull, as they get to 50% if they win 2/2. We get 52% minimum.

To finish above Leeds, we have to win as many as they do. So if we beat Hull, Leeds have to win both of their matches to finish above us....including Saints away!
So we are assured of a top six spot it’s just a question of where we finish, a home game beckons.
There are 8 teams above. It's only Hull we're nailed on to finish above, so we could still theoretically be 7th. I'll check the fixtures and report back :ugeek:
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morley pie eater
Posts: 3220
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 2:01 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by morley pie eater »

OK. To answer the question "Are we guaranteed a top 6 place?" here are the remaining fixtures that matter:

LEEDS: Saints & Hull KR
CAS: HKR & Wire
HKR: Cas & Leeds.

For worst case scenario, we assume Wigan lose both games. That means we end up with 52.0%.
We assume Leeds beat Saints (!) and Cas beat Warrington, as they're the worst results for us.

So the two critical games are HKR against Cas and Leeds.
In order for Rovers to finish above us they needs to win both, or win one and draw one.

If they win both, then Cas lose, but can still finish above us by beating Wire.
Also Leeds also lose, and can finish above us if they beat Saints.

Final percentages would be:
HKR 55.00%
Leeds 54.17%
Cas. 52.17%
Wigan 52.00%

So it's still possible for us to finish 7th, but only if we lose two, Leeds beat Saints, Cas beat Warrington and HKR beat both Cas and Leeds!!! (Or draw one and win one.)

Hope I've got that right....it all sounds very unlikely - ask your local bookie for the odds :D
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Charriots Offiah
Posts: 4130
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:14 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by Charriots Offiah »

morley pie eater wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:34 pm OK. To answer the question "Are we guaranteed a top 6 place?" here are the remaining fixtures that matter:

LEEDS: Saints & Hull KR
CAS: HKR & Wire
HKR: Cas & Leeds.

For worst case scenario, we assume Wigan lose both games. That means we end up with 52.0%.
We assume Leeds beat Saints (!) and Cas beat Warrington, as they're the worst results for us.

So the two critical games are HKR against Cas and Leeds.
In order for Rovers to finish above us they needs to win both, or win one and draw one.

If they win both, then Cas lose, but can still finish above us by beating Wire.
Also Leeds also lose, and can finish above us if they beat Saints.

Final percentages would be:
HKR 55.00%
Leeds 54.17%
Cas. 52.17%
Wigan 52.00%

So it's still possible for us to finish 7th, but only if we lose two, Leeds beat Saints, Cas beat Warrington and HKR beat both Cas and Leeds!!! (Or draw one and win one.)

Hope I've got that right....it all sounds very unlikely - ask your local bookie for the odds :D
Thank you.
moto748
Posts: 4583
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:30 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by moto748 »

This is sterling work, morley!
ian.birchall
Posts: 3679
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 9:42 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by ian.birchall »

Surely Morley hasn't come over to the dark side at last??
Regarder une fille en bikini, c'est comme avoir un revolver chargé sur sa table:
Il n'y a rien de mal a ça mais il est difficile de penser à autre chose.


Now Europe is just for holidays.
morley pie eater
Posts: 3220
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 2:01 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by morley pie eater »

ian.birchall wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:28 am Surely Morley hasn't come over to the dark side at last??
:lol:
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morley pie eater
Posts: 3220
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 2:01 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by morley pie eater »

moto748 wrote: Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:49 am This is sterling work, morley!
Thank you. It's light relief from trying to get Leeds City Council to refund £150+ in council tax they owe me!
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fozzieskem
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sat May 14, 2016 10:54 am

Re: League position predictor

Post by fozzieskem »

Charriots Offiah wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:05 pm
morley pie eater wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:50 pm Here's the "table" updated after Magic results.

It's on the assumption that all play 2 more games, so the columns are final percentage with 0/1/2 wins. Any draws would give a different result!

CATS: 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0
WAR: 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0
LDS: 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 47.8 / 52.2 / 57.6
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0
HKR: 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
We are now guaranteed to finish above Hull, as they get to 50% if they win 2/2. We get 52% minimum.

To finish above Leeds, we have to win as many as they do. So if we beat Hull, Leeds have to win both of their matches to finish above us....including Saints away!
So we are assured of a top six spot it’s just a question of where we finish, a home game beckons.
I was wondering if Wigan would get a home game
morley pie eater
Posts: 3220
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 2:01 pm

Re: League position predictor

Post by morley pie eater »

Update after Leeds' defeat:

If we beat Hull this afternoon, only Cas could possibly knock us out of 4th spot. To do that they need to beat both HKR and Wire and still rely on us losing to Cats. So we're guaranteed 5th in that case.

If we lose both of our games, we end in 52%.
For HKR to pass us, they have to win both of their games...against Cas and Leeds. That would mean Leeds finish below us, and Cas can only pass us by beating Wire. So, by my reckoning, we're now guaranteed at least 6th spot, and most likely 4th or 5th.
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