Halfs

Discuss all things Wigan Warriors. Comments and opinions on all aspects of the club's performance are welcome.
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Mike
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Re: Halfs

Post by Mike »

LancashireRed wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 2:40 pm
LancashireRed wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:15 am Just watching our halves this year and at times it feels as though they don't organise a great deal and dominate games. Smith and Cust can both kick well, but neither really make a great deal of line breaks. We need our 7 to be organising and the 6 running at the line causing hovoc. The Wigan 1-5 is decent, surely if our 6 & 7 are more direct in attack we will be more effective going forward than the last two games and score points. It is concerning that some fans prefer Cust as a 9 (He does like to run from the play of the ball), his job is to be a 6, start and create attacks bringing the centres and Field into the line, unleashing our strike players. Do Wigan fans feel our 6/7 do enough with the ball in hand in terms of attack; line breaks, assists, etc. Wigan need their 6/7 to be direct and build momentum in games - sometimes it feels like they are going through set plays until Field hits the line trying to make something happen.
If you look at the stats, it looks like Smith is carrying the team from a halves perspective. He has 7 try assists and is top for attacking kicks. He's never going to be top of clean breaks etc, but this season he is our most effective half. Cust needs to up his game or we try Field at 6 and use Cust as an impact hooker, we need more from him if he remains at 6.

I'd make that switch with Field now, and use Cust and Powell as rotating hookers depending on what the game/fitness situation is. This has the benefit of getting French into the game more, and the disadvantages of exposing Field in defense more and his inexperience at half back. So its a trade off, but I'd like to see us give it a go for a few weeks at least. Once we get there Hampshire will hopefully be back in the mix and we'll have more options.
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ian.birchall
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Re: Halfs

Post by ian.birchall »

So Morley,
It's official, you were the shadow behind the r number which kept us all locked up when we could have been on the beach at Scarborough
:o
Regarder une fille en bikini, c'est comme avoir un revolver chargé sur sa table:
Il n'y a rien de mal a ça mais il est difficile de penser à autre chose.


Now Europe is just for holidays.
morley pie eater
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Re: Halfs

Post by morley pie eater »

medlocke wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 10:04 am
Stanfax wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:28 am
morley pie eater wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:10 pm Let me introduce myself by way of explanation. I was a Maths teacher, I taught A-level Maths and Further Maths for 20 years. Though I'm retired, occasionally I get the urge to get my pen and paper out and do a few calculations.
I'm not boasting about my qualifications, but thought I may need to set the scene for what follows.

A recent poster claimed (as others have) that we need a 9 who runs from dummy half more, as not doing makes us too predictable. Above is my first response, but once I start on statistics, I like to do it proper.

To be fair and accurate, I needed stats for a full season as, with only 5 games played this year, results could be skewed by who has played who. So I took the 2022 season's figures. I compared a "league table" based on how many dummy runs each team made, with their actual league position at the end of the 2022 season.

With me so far? Right, here we go:

Posn . .Team . . DR . .League Posn.

1. Hull KR . . . .469 . . .8th
2. Warringt'n . . 316 . . .11th
3. Toulouse . . .313. . . 12th
4. Leeds. . . . .288 . . . .5th
5. Hudd'fd . . . .277 . . . .3rd
6. Salford . . . . .275 . . . .6th
7. Wakef'd . . . . 271. . . .10th
8. Hull. . . . . . 264 . . . .9th
9. Castlef'd . . . . 240. . . . 7th
10. Saints. . . . . .184. . . . .1st
11. Catalans. . . . .164 . . . 4th
12. Wigan. . . . . 137. . . . .2nd

This represents a "negative correlation", meaning that it is more likely that a team with a low number of Dummy Runs (DR) finished higher in the league, and a team with more DR finished lower.

It's easy to see this if you note that the 3 teams with least DR finished 1,2, and 4 in the league. Meanwhile Toulouse, with twice as many DR as these 3 averaged, finished bottom. Hull KR, who made a phenomenal 3-and-a-half times as many DR as Wigan, finished 8th.

I'm sure that every SL coach will be aware of these data. As Wayne Bennett said, “If you start listening to the fans, it won’t be long until you are sitting next to them.”

[Added notes for the technically minded:

1. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = -0.60839.
r = 1 would indicate a perfect match, so the top team would have most DRs and the bottom team least etc.
r = -1 indicates a perfect negative match, so the top team has least DRs and the bottom team most.

2. The figure does not prove that there is a link. ie I'm not saying that doing more/less DRs makes you a worse/better team. For example, the negative correlation could be because top teams are more confident in their other plays and don't feel the need to run for dummy half quite so much. Or there may be no reason at all. The reasons for the link are for the experts to decide, but the link is clear.

What it does show is that there certainly ISN'T a positive link - that if you do more DRs you'll be a better team.]
First sentence looks like you've come over all Mick Jagger Morley! Are you a man of wealth and taste?
He's been around for a long, long years
And sold many a man's soul to pay.
But I'd be pleased to meet you
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