Halfs

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josie andrews
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Re: Halfs

Post by josie andrews »

Charriots Offiah wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:34 pm
Mike wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:23 am
Charriots Offiah wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:02 pm

Cust is never a stand off in a month of Sundays.
So you like this idea, or not?

Or is it that every thread that is trying to discuss an interesting idea and see what people think about that idea is actually just an opportunity to have a dog at a player and not contribute to the discussion?
The thread is about “halfs” Mike and that’s what I commented on, what’s your problem? If you want to go off at a tangent then feel free.

But given that you have asked me a question I will answer. Forber should be playing. Is that ok?
Please don’t be argumentative 😊
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Charriots Offiah
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Re: Halfs

Post by Charriots Offiah »

Mike wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:40 pm
the pieman wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:31 pm
Mike wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:06 pm

IMO this is *really* overstating things. You're saying that the entire future of the team is determined by the choice of a single player. Yes, the forwards set the platform (well they do on tackles 3 and 4 - its the wings/centres that set the platform for that and the hooker is not involved) and the hooker controls that phase, but in general tackles 5 and 6 are back line dominated moves, so surely the composition of the backline influences that? They have a more difficult job to make an impact with slow ball, but they still can.

I'm surprised the following objections to this formation haven't come up, as they've been mentioned a lot in the past.
* Cust has been criticized for weak defense, and we're saying we need him in the middles significantly increasing his defensive duties
* Field has been criticized for being a poor at stand-off

I think throwing Hampshire into the mix is a realistic option in future, but because of injury it isn't yet, and not for the foreseeable. I also don't think saying the problem is past recruitment helps this discussion (no matter how correct that might be in hindsight), because we are where we are this season, and we're talking about how to get the most out of this squad.

I supposed I just have to understand that we're so focused on Powell specifically, that all thread must be about him and only him...
No, but it is critical if we want French and Field to be receiving good ball, with options and not being battered by the opposition defence. I purposely, other than agreeing Martin Dermott is the best hooker i've seen at Wigan, havent named Powell, i've said hooker or no9. We need someone to be able to deliver good quality ball for either the current setup or any proposed changes to that setup to be effective.

I agree tackles 1 and 2 are mainly wing or centre picking up and taking the ball up, especially if its in our own 20m area. tackles 3 & 4 are still reliant on a good ball from the hooker. a slow POTB, and poor slow ball, means the taking the ball flat / immediately into a line of defenders and no real metre gains, thus impacting on tackle 5 & 6 options too.

so whilst i wasnt saying we are wholly reliant on one person, that one person, our no 9 is critical to the speed that we play and the quality that we with, and the ability to unlock the potential of others in the team
Fair enough. I accept that hooker is an important position regardless of who's in the halves.

However do you think we'd be better, slightly or otherwise removing Cust from the halves and shifting field and french. Personally I think we would but it may take some time to bed in and we would have to persevere with it through some rough games where it doesn't click before we get to a sweet spot.
I think that would be akin to trying to put square pegs into round holes or trying to fix a problem without the right tools. It is obvious that the coaching staff are not happy hence the reason it has been tried. I think we should persevere until Rocky is fit and then make a decision on how Cust and Powell should be used, if they should be used at all. The alternative is to give Fober and Astley a go. Maybe that would send out a message to the incumbents.
morley pie eater
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Re: Halfs

Post by morley pie eater »

Let me introduce myself by way of explanation. I was a Maths teacher, I taught A-level Maths and Further Maths for 20 years. Though I'm retired, occasionally I get the urge to get my pen and paper out and do a few calculations.
I'm not boasting about my qualifications, but thought I may need to set the scene for what follows.

A recent poster claimed (as others have) that we need a 9 who runs from dummy half more, as not doing makes us too predictable. Above is my first response, but once I start on statistics, I like to do it proper.

To be fair and accurate, I needed stats for a full season as, with only 5 games played this year, results could be skewed by who has played who. So I took the 2022 season's figures. I compared a "league table" based on how many dummy runs each team made, with their actual league position at the end of the 2022 season.

With me so far? Right, here we go:

Posn . .Team . . DR . .League Posn.

1. Hull KR . . . .469 . . .8th
2. Warringt'n . . 316 . . .11th
3. Toulouse . . .313. . . 12th
4. Leeds. . . . .288 . . . .5th
5. Hudd'fd . . . .277 . . . .3rd
6. Salford . . . . .275 . . . .6th
7. Wakef'd . . . . 271. . . .10th
8. Hull. . . . . . 264 . . . .9th
9. Castlef'd . . . . 240. . . . 7th
10. Saints. . . . . .184. . . . .1st
11. Catalans. . . . .164 . . . 4th
12. Wigan. . . . . 137. . . . .2nd

This represents a "negative correlation", meaning that it is more likely that a team with a low number of Dummy Runs (DR) finished higher in the league, and a team with more DR finished lower.

It's easy to see this if you note that the 3 teams with least DR finished 1,2, and 4 in the league. Meanwhile Toulouse, with twice as many DR as these 3 averaged, finished bottom. Hull KR, who made a phenomenal 3-and-a-half times as many DR as Wigan, finished 8th.

I'm sure that every SL coach will be aware of these data. As Wayne Bennett said, “If you start listening to the fans, it won’t be long until you are sitting next to them.”

[Added notes for the technically minded:

1. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = -0.60839.
r = 1 would indicate a perfect match, so the top team would have most DRs and the bottom team least etc.
r = -1 indicates a perfect negative match, so the top team has least DRs and the bottom team most.

2. The figure does not prove that there is a link. ie I'm not saying that doing more/less DRs makes you a worse/better team. For example, the negative correlation could be because top teams are more confident in their other plays and don't feel the need to run for dummy half quite so much. Or there may be no reason at all. The reasons for the link are for the experts to decide, but the link is clear.

What it does show is that there certainly ISN'T a positive link - that if you do more DRs you'll be a better team.]
Last edited by morley pie eater on Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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lucky 13
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Re: Halfs

Post by lucky 13 »

To add you have to take in perceived threat from your runs. To occupy defenders you really need quality and speed from that given threat.
If I was a coach playing Wigan I would be expecting my first second markers anywhere outside my 20 to be passive re scoots by Sam. Basically my A defenders can clean any runs within that 10m zone because there is no threat of pace. I'm guessing here and think we already know that and have analytic models showing the positive and negatives of how we play from that position with the positive and negatives it brings?
While Roby may not scoot as much or have the pace of days gone he really is the best, if anything he's been better once he moved away from just the scoot and with it almost gone completely is still the best.
I do think we miss that from 9 but the situation is exaggerated when your first receivers also suffer a little from the same issues in for a 6 and 7 both seem more ball players than runners, it just allows teams to be more passive Cust at least tries it. While O'Neil is not perfect, in the tighter games the little extra unknown about him helps. If you look at when teams are switched on and play the grind we struggle CC final Leeds semi even Hudds other night.
On a positive outside that we have magic and with new combinations settled we will still cause problems. Smith and Cust are still inexperienced to a degree also so that will improve given support.
I would try something over next few weeks and I may get shot down Thornley at right second row. I also imagine Running with Hampshire on the bench must be an option cover and chance to change things up.
We still need to sort out right second row going forward amongst a few other things but it's early season a d results are a little up and down.
I also think we started last season strong because we had to we earmarked the cup as a better chance than GF and ran out of gas.
You have got to believe Wigan have looked at the 9 position that's why we see the Cust to 9, Bev 1 and Jai 6 it puts runners in three out of four carrying positions.
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fozzieskem
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Re: Halfs

Post by fozzieskem »

Ahh the endless hooker debate.

I do wonder and I’d love a dynamic hooker to add to the mix,I do wonder if that’s just not the way Wigan play?

O’Neill is the answer we heard the cries,to this I answer “he’s playing more like Powell now”(and to me he is),so he’s maybe not the shoe in he was seems as last season,I do hope for good things off Forber but who’s to say he won’t be told to play the Powell way when and indeed if his time comes?

Not adding anything to the debate am I really,I certainly don’t mean to be obtuse but it just seems to me Peet plays the hooking role pretty much as Wane did in his time and no matter who the encumbant is they’ll be told to play that way?
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Wigan_forever1985
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Re: Halfs

Post by Wigan_forever1985 »

In response to Morley

I assume (feel free to correct me) you’ve looked simply at dummy half runs not dummy half runs made by a hooker

It would be expect that poorer teams would have more scoots as wingers/centres scooting is common place on a exit set from your own 20 in which most teams who are losing games will do

Teams starting their sets further up the field tend to the ones in more dominant positions therefore scoots not needed for cheap yardage

Also to clarify we don’t need someone who just sprints from dummy half every play - like a headless chicken. You don’t even need a running 9 - mickey mac doesn’t scoot much but his passing is crisp, fast and smart

Powells overall game is slow - so it’s not just his running which is laughably slow - it’s his passing speed and accuracy. He’s basically a very limited player who gets by on effort which you can’t fault him for

Roby is the best hooker superleague has produced he doesn’t scoot all the time but when he does he causes mayhem because he is smart - he knows exactly when to go and when no to and teams can’t sleep on him so they need to compact around the ruck incase he does go

No one is worried about Powell running even if he does they time to make a brew and come back and tackle him before quicksand feet has made 2 yards
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Stanfax
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Re: Halfs

Post by Stanfax »

morley pie eater wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:10 pm Let me introduce myself by way of explanation. I was a Maths teacher, I taught A-level Maths and Further Maths for 20 years. Though I'm retired, occasionally I get the urge to get my pen and paper out and do a few calculations.
I'm not boasting about my qualifications, but thought I may need to set the scene for what follows.

A recent poster claimed (as others have) that we need a 9 who runs from dummy half more, as not doing makes us too predictable. Above is my first response, but once I start on statistics, I like to do it proper.

To be fair and accurate, I needed stats for a full season as, with only 5 games played this year, results could be skewed by who has played who. So I took the 2022 season's figures. I compared a "league table" based on how many dummy runs each team made, with their actual league position at the end of the 2022 season.

With me so far? Right, here we go:

Posn . .Team . . DR . .League Posn.

1. Hull KR . . . .469 . . .8th
2. Warringt'n . . 316 . . .11th
3. Toulouse . . .313. . . 12th
4. Leeds. . . . .288 . . . .5th
5. Hudd'fd . . . .277 . . . .3rd
6. Salford . . . . .275 . . . .6th
7. Wakef'd . . . . 271. . . .10th
8. Hull. . . . . . 264 . . . .9th
9. Castlef'd . . . . 240. . . . 7th
10. Saints. . . . . .184. . . . .1st
11. Catalans. . . . .164 . . . 4th
12. Wigan. . . . . 137. . . . .2nd

This represents a "negative correlation", meaning that it is more likely that a team with a low number of Dummy Runs (DR) finished higher in the league, and a team with more DR finished lower.

It's easy to see this if you note that the 3 teams with least DR finished 1,2, and 4 in the league. Meanwhile Toulouse, with twice as many DR as these 3 averaged, finished bottom. Hull KR, who made a phenomenal 3-and-a-half times as many DR as Wigan, finished 8th.

I'm sure that every SL coach will be aware of these data. As Wayne Bennett said, “If you start listening to the fans, it won’t be long until you are sitting next to them.”

[Added notes for the technically minded:

1. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = -0.60839.
r = 1 would indicate a perfect match, so the top team would have most DRs and the bottom team least etc.
r = -1 indicates a perfect negative match, so the top team has least DRs and the bottom team most.

2. The figure does not prove that there is a link. ie I'm not saying that doing more/less DRs makes you a worse/better team. For example, the negative correlation could be because top teams are more confident in their other plays and don't feel the need to run for dummy half quite so much. Or there may be no reason at all. The reasons for the link are for the experts to decide, but the link is clear.

What it does show is that there certainly ISN'T a positive link - that if you do more DRs you'll be a better team.]
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Charriots Offiah
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Re: Halfs

Post by Charriots Offiah »

josie andrews wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:51 pm
Charriots Offiah wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:34 pm
Mike wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:23 am

So you like this idea, or not?

Or is it that every thread that is trying to discuss an interesting idea and see what people think about that idea is actually just an opportunity to have a dog at a player and not contribute to the discussion?
The thread is about “halfs” Mike and that’s what I commented on, what’s your problem? If you want to go off at a tangent then feel free.

But given that you have asked me a question I will answer. Forber should be playing. Is that ok?
Please don’t be argumentative 😊
I'm not being argumentative, I was simply pointing out that I was on topic unlike some others.
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Mike
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Re: Halfs

Post by Mike »

Wigan_forever1985 wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:32 pm In response to Morley

I assume (feel free to correct me) you’ve looked simply at dummy half runs not dummy half runs made by a hooker

It would be expect that poorer teams would have more scoots as wingers/centres scooting is common place on a exit set from your own 20 in which most teams who are losing games will do

I think this is a good point - what is that stat exactly?

However, not withstanding that potential flaw, the stat that we finished second wouldn't change.

Question, If Powell, as we've established beyond doubt on this thread, is the only/main reason why the 9, 6, 7, 13 spine will succeed/fail; and he is the worst hooker in SL (which is very often claimed he would not get in any other team ahead of their current hooker, whoever that might be) - then how did we finish above 10 of them and win the cup? I just don't understand it.

Maybe having a good 6, 7, 13, 1 2, 3, 4 ... etc actually is important too? And maybe it does matter which position they play in to have the most effective team possible independently of the hooking personnel?

And maybe we could talk about half backs in a thread entitled "Halfs", and not immediately talk about Powell?

But maybe not.
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nathan_rugby
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Re: Halfs

Post by nathan_rugby »

The lack of scooting from Powell isn’t the only issue with our attacking player at hooker.
    It’s the inability to be creative, step out and draw the A and B defenders.
    I
      t’s also the inability to link well with forwards so they can hit the ball at pace, receive it near the gain line and at the right angles.

      That first point above is the start of why we sometimes struggle to make space. It’s because we don’t create any, just simple catching and passing which causes the defence to spread and know what’s coming. Cust and Smith also do it which does suggest there are an element of tactics with it.
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