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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:28 am
by DaveO
Wandering Warrior wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:42 am
It's going to go through the HoC for a third time to try and get it through!
And do you know why?

The answer appears to be the ERG and DUP think Cox can be persuaded to give advice that Article 62 of the Vienna convention will fly legally as a means of the UK unilaterally exiting the backstop. A62 basically says any nation can get out of a treaty by just quitting it if it thinks there is a fundamental change of circumstances.

That would allow the ERG and DUP to vote for May's deal.

It is however a ludicrous stance to take because as the deal has as a fundamental part of it that you can't unilaterally leave the backstop then if you have come up with a legal ruse that says you can unilaterally leave it, it is telling the EU and the world the UK can't be trusted.

It doesn't even matter if this is used as a ladder for the ERG and DUP to climb down and they themselves do not believe it would ever be used and this is just a face saving exercise as they have at the 11th hour reluctantly accepted the backstop. The fact they put it on the table leaves the possibility it could be used and so it can only be seen as a way to undermine the deal.

What the EU would make of this I have no idea but it would signal the UK was entering into this deal with every intention of reneging on the backstop as soon as possible having cooked up an excuse.

I think that would leave us seen as about as trustworthy as North Korea.

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:39 am
by fozzieskem
Frankly Dave at this point I don’t trust the UK,quite simply ludicrous situation we have found ourselves in the simple thing would be to at least delay it,have an election to see if anyone can get a majority and not be held to ransom by a bunch of hicks such as the DUP.

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:16 pm
by Wandering Warrior
I heard some mutterings about this on LBC earlier. So basically buy him off and get him to tell lies!?
Nowt new there then!!
Still BREXIT MEANS BREXIT. :lol:

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:42 pm
by DaveO
I don't think it is going to work. If the UK wanted to use A62 to get out of the backstop you can't just cancel that bit of it, you have to break the whole treaty so whatever else is covered by the withdrawal agreement goes up in smoke with it.

In International law even things like the collapse of the soviet union and the break up of Czechoslovakia were not considered sufficiently seismic events to represent a fundamental change jn circumstances to warrant breaking treatise.

You also can't use it to break a treaty that contains events you could foresee. So if the circumstances laid down to engage the backstop occured you could not argue they were a reason to break the treaty.

Of course this doesn't stop the ERG or DUP using A62 as a way to say they can back May's deal but if they do then as I said before the implication is they will have backed it because they are saying that can use it. So they would even if they would never actually do it still be threatening to break the deal before the ink was dry.

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:06 pm
by Wiganer Ted
So in the last two days "No Deal" has been cancelled and so has the departure date of 29th March.
Very odd that both Labour and the Peoples Vote folk decided not to vote on the referendum amendment.
Quite why isn't clear at all.

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:55 pm
by Wandering Warrior
I wonder if that grinning monkey Farage will put himself up for MEP if it comes to the question?
No sense in not milking the gravy train!!

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:09 pm
by medlocke
Wiganer Ted wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:06 pm
So in the last two days "No Deal" has been cancelled and so has the departure date of 29th March.
Very odd that both Labour and the Peoples Vote folk decided not to vote on the referendum amendment.
Quite why isn't clear at all.
Because there's only you that wants it Ted ;) :lol:

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:44 pm
by Mike
medlocke wrote:
Wiganer Ted wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:06 pm
So in the last two days "No Deal" has been cancelled and so has the departure date of 29th March.
Very odd that both Labour and the Peoples Vote folk decided not to vote on the referendum amendment.
Quite why isn't clear at all.
Because there's only you that wants it Ted ;) Image
How can you leave meds knowing your work here is not done! Hope you've registered for an overseas vote just in case!

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk


Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:03 pm
by DaveO
Wiganer Ted wrote:So in the last two days "No Deal" has been cancelled and so has the departure date of 29th March.
Very odd that both Labour and the Peoples Vote folk decided not to vote on the referendum amendment.
Quite why isn't clear at all.

It all hinges on whether May can get her deal through at the third time of asking. If not then I suspect the plan is to try to say parliament will accept it if there is a referendum on Mays deal or remain. Not just another in/out referendum.

Looks like the DUP is trying it’s best to find an excuse to back it so it will probably pass this time but if it doesn’t I think that is the plan.

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:10 pm
by ancientnloyal
You could easily change the wording in this debate and relate it to our current Wigan Warriors situation. Lenegans deal up for a vote for a third week now. Sack or not to sack, does Lam have cross party support for his plan?