Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

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DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:52 pm

ian.birchall wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:15 pm
I have always been both grateful and thankful for all three of my hip replacements, 2004, 2017 and January 2019. However I have never felt it is sensible to continue to pour more and more billions into an unreformed NHS, a bucket with a hole in it dear Liza. All through my working career as an accountant I worked for companies where there was a continuous programme of staff reductions. The financial pressures on the NHS could be eased, the money saved being used to properly fund social care for the elderly, if there was a gentle but continuous programme to reduce the approximately 700k staff included in the 1.3 million total employed who have no medical qualification or function, 5% a year in any other business I would suggest is quite normal.
As a political point I could tell you that in the candidates question and answer session on Thursday Johnson was quite specific when he said that it was time for Parliament to realise that the political arguments over funding the costs of social care would only be overcome by a cross party, Tories Labour Lib Dem ( who are neither liberal or democratic by the way) SNP AND Plaid commission which he would form in the early months of his Premiership. Let's wait and see if he follows that promise up shall we?
What do you mean unreformed NHS? It was your lot that "reformed" it via Lansey's Health and Social Care act in 2012. And it is your lots austerity policies that put paid to social care resulting in the elderly bed blocking in the NHS as there is nowhere else to go.

The changes included abolishing primary care trusts and replacing them with new local clinical commissioning groups and that has pushed up the costs. NHS departments also banned from competing to offer services because them being able to do it cheaper is seen as anti-competition. This is just ridiculous because the whole point of the Tories believed market forces is supposed to be it drives costs down. Yet when faced with the private sector being unable to compete with the public sector, they ban the public sector from bidding. Never mind the fact costs to the NHS go up as a result.

Now you're telling me that liar Johnson wants a cross party solution to the problems your lot created? Unbelievable.

We all know what cross party talks from the Tories amount to anyway. Do what the Tories want and put your name too it so you can share the blame.

morley pie eater
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by morley pie eater » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:47 pm

SJ wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:48 pm
You say don't mention the Gaurdian so I won't Its a left wing paper that just churns out Socialist tripe anyway.
You obviously forgotten the years Labour were in power😜
So you miss my point completely, SJ.

The Guardian article contains quotes *from the named politicians*. Hence (unless you think the Guardian made them up), I was effectively disagreeing with THEM, regardless of which paper quoted their views.

This "dialogue of the deaf" is what I was trying to get away from. It's also the reason I've not previously got involved in arguing on this thread, and won't now.

You just carry on with your point scoring and have a happy life x

SJ
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by SJ » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:37 pm

morley pie eater wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:47 pm
[quote="SJ " post_id=465456 time=<a href="tel:1562600932">1562600932</a> user_id=8284]
You say don't mention the Gaurdian so I won't Its a left wing paper that just churns out Socialist tripe anyway.
You obviously forgotten the years Labour were in power😜
So you miss my point completely, SJ.

The Guardian article contains quotes *from the named politicians*. Hence (unless you think the Guardian made them up), I was effectively disagreeing with THEM, regardless of which paper quoted their views.

This "dialogue of the deaf" is what I was trying to get away from. It's also the reason I've not previously got involved in arguing on this thread, and won't now.

You just carry on with your point scoring and have a happy life x
[/quote]

I didn't read the article you referenced I did notice something Jeremy Hunt is alleged to have said in2005. He's obviously changed his opinion. Have you never change yours cos I have on many occasions most opinions are diachronic People thought the World was flat (some still do) It's really no accident they presumably now have good reason for changing their opinions

As for point scoring nothing could be farther from the truth. In a nutshell re this topic I have not said we will be better off or we will not. I've maintained the opinion that the question can only be answered retrospectively although I believe in Brexit for political reasons ie Democracy and Sovreinty. No point scoring just giving my opinion. If your concerned about point scoring I suggest you look in a different direction than me. 🤓

morley pie eater
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by morley pie eater » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:29 pm

SJ wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:37 pm
morley pie eater wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:47 pm
[quote="SJ " post_id=465456 time=<a href="tel:1562600932">1562600932</a> user_id=8284]
You say don't mention the Gaurdian so I won't Its a left wing paper that just churns out Socialist tripe anyway.
You obviously forgotten the years Labour were in power😜
So you miss my point completely, SJ.

The Guardian article contains quotes *from the named politicians*. Hence (unless you think the Guardian made them up), I was effectively disagreeing with THEM, regardless of which paper quoted their views.

This "dialogue of the deaf" is what I was trying to get away from. It's also the reason I've not previously got involved in arguing on this thread, and won't now.

You just carry on with your point scoring and have a happy life x
I didn't read the article you referenced I did notice something Jeremy Hunt is alleged to have said in2005. He's obviously changed his opinion. Have you never change yours cos I have on many occasions most opinions are diachronic People thought the World was flat (some still do) It's really no accident they presumably now have good reason for changing their opinions

As for point scoring nothing could be farther from the truth. In a nutshell re this topic I have not said we will be better off or we will not. I've maintained the opinion that the question can only be answered retrospectively although I believe in Brexit for political reasons ie Democracy and Sovreinty. No point scoring just giving my opinion. If your concerned about point scoring I suggest you look in a different direction than me. 🤓
Could you direct me to where Mr Hunt said he'd changed his opinion? Or is it something else that you've not bothered reading but just reacted to anyway?

I'm happy to acknowledge anyone's right to change their point of view. However, their actions must match their words, and Mr Hunt's actions as the longest-serving Health Secretary (surpassing Aneurin Bevan, whose shoes he would be unworthy to unlace - see link below) absolutely confirm his views in the 2005 paper - one which I actually did bother to read before commenting.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ ... html%3famp

PS I've no idea what diachronic means, but I think I get your drift.

DaveO
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Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2002 5:32 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:36 pm

SJ wrote:
morley pie eater wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:47 pm
[quote="SJ " post_id=465456 time=<a href="tel:1562600932">1562600932</a> user_id=8284]
You say don't mention the Gaurdian so I won't Its a left wing paper that just churns out Socialist tripe anyway.
You obviously forgotten the years Labour were in powerImage
So you miss my point completely, SJ.

The Guardian article contains quotes *from the named politicians*. Hence (unless you think the Guardian made them up), I was effectively disagreeing with THEM, regardless of which paper quoted their views.

This "dialogue of the deaf" is what I was trying to get away from. It's also the reason I've not previously got involved in arguing on this thread, and won't now.

You just carry on with your point scoring and have a happy life x
I didn't read the article you referenced I did notice something Jeremy Hunt is alleged to have said in2005. He's obviously changed his opinion. Have you never change yours cos I have on many occasions most opinions are diachronic People thought the World was flat (some still do) It's really no accident they presumably now have good reason for changing their opinions [/quote]

There is a difference between changing you opinion when the facts change and changing it to win votes when they have not.

If you can’t see Hunt’s conversion to the cause isn’t transparently unprincipled you aren’t looking.



SJ
Posts: 1270
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:46 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by SJ » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:41 pm

I never read the Independent Its far from Independent. for directions. Can't be arsed. But I got the date correct. To much wine and rum. Not re commended purely for medicinal purposes you understand.your right I'm not looking. Looks like a point to you. If you get my drift

SJ
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by SJ » Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:39 am

DaveO wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:36 pm
SJ wrote:
morley pie eater wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:47 pm
[quote="SJ " post_id=465456 time=<a href="tel:1562600932">1562600932</a> user_id=8284]
You say don't mention the Gaurdian so I won't Its a left wing paper that just churns out Socialist tripe anyway.
You obviously forgotten the years Labour were in powerImage
So you miss my point completely, SJ.

The Guardian article contains quotes *from the named politicians*. Hence (unless you think the Guardian made them up), I was effectively disagreeing with THEM, regardless of which paper quoted their views.

This "dialogue of the deaf" is what I was trying to get away from. It's also the reason I've not previously got involved in arguing on this thread, and won't now.

You just carry on with your point scoring and have a happy life x
I didn't read the article you referenced I did notice something Jeremy Hunt is alleged to have said in2005. He's obviously changed his opinion. Have you never change yours cos I have on many occasions most opinions are diachronic People thought the World was flat (some still do) It's really no accident they presumably now have good reason for changing their opinions
There is a difference between changing you opinion when the facts change and changing it to win votes when they have not.

If you can’t see Hunt’s conversion to the cause isn’t transparently unprincipled you aren’t looking.
[/quote]
I told you before FACTS don't change If they did they wouldn't have been THE facts. Simple😜 Your logic explains your political judgements I feel. Could be wrong I ussually am😄

DaveO
Posts: 14415
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2002 5:32 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:14 am

SJ wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:39 am
DaveO wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:36 pm


I didn't read the article you referenced I did notice something Jeremy Hunt is alleged to have said in2005. He's obviously changed his opinion. Have you never change yours cos I have on many occasions most opinions are diachronic People thought the World was flat (some still do) It's really no accident they presumably now have good reason for changing their opinions
There is a difference between changing you opinion when the facts change and changing it to win votes when they have not.

If you can’t see Hunt’s conversion to the cause isn’t transparently unprincipled you aren’t looking.
I told you before FACTS don't change If they did they wouldn't have been THE facts. Simple😜 Your logic explains your political judgements I feel. Could be wrong I ussually am😄
What do you mean facts don't change? Isn't part of the case for Brexit supposed to be the EU is not what we joined back in the 70's? It's changed from being the Common Market so therefore some people no longer want to be part of it?

I might disagree with that but at least it has some basis for anyone who supported joining the Common Market not wanting to remain in the EU.

What I am saying about Hunt is he campaigned to Remain on the basis of our EU membership as it was in 2016 and us having signed up to all the subsequent treaties since we originally joined. Since 2016 nothing has changed about the terms of our EU membership but he's gone from Remain to Leave.

He can't plead ignorance. He's a politician whose job it is to understand the terms of our membership and the consequences of leaving the EU and he campaigned to Remain. Now he is a "Leaver" because it's the only way he will win votes from the 160k Tory members.

Only an idiot doesn't reevaluate their opinion when the facts change but since 2016 nothing has changed about the terms of our EU membership that had Hunt an enthusiastic remainer.

medlocke
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by medlocke » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:24 am

The UK economy is growing, public borrowing is down and unemployment is at its lowest since 1975. Facebook, Apple and Google have planned big headquarters in Britain, London has been crowned the world’s most popular city for work and Siemens plan to create 2,000 jobs in the UK. Whilst the good economic news continues, the scare stories about border disruption have been completely torpedoed. The head of the Port of Calais, Jean-Marc Puissesseau, has said they won’t restrict UK trade at all if we leave without a deal. Please can we now end Project Fear? Nobody else sees us in the drab, declining way we sometimes see ourselves. By contrast, the rest of the world is waiting for Britain to shake off the tin-pot diktats of Brussels and emerge as a global trading giant. Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the US want to sign speedy trade deals. Now the Withdrawal Agreement has been voted down, Britain could lower tariffs and have the pick of the world’s markets. Legally we’re on solid ground. The House of Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee published a report arguing that we can leave the EU without paying anything: Brussels would have no realistic chance of getting £40 billion of taxpayers’ cash. Legal expert Martin Howe QC points out that leaving the European Union without a formal deal is not a step into a legal vacuum as our international trade with the European Union will become subject to the same legal regime which currently governs the majority of our export trade to the rest of the world: the rules-based system of the World Trade Organisation.

DaveO
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Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2002 5:32 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:23 pm

medlocke wrote:
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:24 am
The UK economy is growing, public borrowing is down and unemployment is at its lowest since 1975.
The UK economy just shrank for the first time in 7 years.

Facebook, Apple and Google have planned big headquarters in Britain, London has been crowned the world’s most popular city for work and Siemens plan to create 2,000 jobs in the UK. Whilst the good economic news continues, the scare stories about border disruption have been completely torpedoed. The head of the Port of Calais, Jean-Marc Puissesseau, has said they won’t restrict UK trade at all if we leave without a deal. Please can we now end Project Fear?
He's not said that at all. What he has said is he is building the infrastructure to deal with how trade will be restricted. Larry parks and other mechanisms to deal with the issues are what he is setting up. He's also keen his port doesn't lose trade to places like Ostend where ferries sale from Ireland to Ostend direct missing out the UK. He has himself travelled to Dublin and Cork to see about setting up new container routes direct to Calais. Did the Express mention that? No, thought not.

All his plans are to do with trying to protect business at his port, not saving the UK form its own stupidity.

He also knows the Brexiteers jumped on his comments as "proof" that trade would flow on regardless but he will not play your game. It's not up to him how trade flows. If there is "no deal" and customs checks are thus required he can't not make those checks.

There is also the problem of goods arriving into the UK. We have to ensure they are checked so as smuggling can't go into the EU via the back door through Ireland. Jean-Marc Puissesseau might be busy trying to mitigate the impact of Brexit for Calais but we have done nothing.

As to jobs thousands have already been lost as a direct consequence of Brexit and investment into the UK from abroad has .
Nobody else sees us in the drab, declining way we sometimes see ourselves. By contrast, the rest of the world is waiting for Britain to shake off the tin-pot diktats of Brussels and emerge as a global trading giant. Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the US want to sign speedy trade deals. Now the Withdrawal Agreement has been voted down, Britain could lower tariffs and have the pick of the world’s markets. Legally we’re on solid ground. The House of Lords EU financial affairs sub-committee published a report arguing that we can leave the EU without paying anything: Brussels would have no realistic chance of getting £40 billion of taxpayers’ cash. Legal expert Martin Howe QC points out that leaving the European Union without a formal deal is not a step into a legal vacuum as our international trade with the European Union will become subject to the same legal regime which currently governs the majority of our export trade to the rest of the world: the rules-based system of the World Trade Organisation.
Absolute nonsense. All of it.

The entire world thinks we have lost our marbles and every country who wants a trade deal wants better terms for them than they get with us being part of the EU. That equals worse terms of us in case you don't realise.

On what planet do you live where you think when we leave the EU the trade deals we will get will be on better terms than we have now? Which of those countries you mention will give us better terms which by definition makes the terms for them worse? You are just indulging in British exceptionalism thinking we call the shots.

Only a few posts back I pointed out the Canadians have already said they will NOT roll over the CETA terms agreed with the EU.

They won't do it because if the UK does as you say and lowers tariffs that means they will get better terms for THEM. So if the UK is forced to reduce tariffs to offset the effects of crashing out (which will kill of agriculture and manufacturing as Brexiteer economist Minford admits) the Canadians are going to wait and take advantage thank you very much. So are all the other countries.

In any case this master plan to lower tariffs removes any leverage the UK has in any future trade deals. Other countries do not have to reciprocate and if we have unilaterally abolished all import tariffs we cannot due to WTO rules, impose them on a particular country that decided to put tariffs when they import British goods.

As to reneging on the £39 billion the price for a trade deal with the EU will be the £39 billion, the Irish backstop and agreement on citizens rights. There is no such thing as "no deal".

The only difference between "no deal" and a deal is with the latter there would be a transition period while everything is worked out. With "no deal" we just crash out but the minute we go to the EU for a trade deal, which we will, you already know the price.

As WTO rules I can't believe anyone is still quoting that nonsense as a solution. It's been totally discredited. There are no “default terms” Britain can crash out on while at the same time, the UK has been blocked by WTO members (as in those you said were rushing to do a trade deal...) from simply relying on the EU’s “schedule” – its existing tariffs and tariff-free trade quotas.

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