Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by Mike » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:19 pm

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DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:46 pm

For those who think that nothing negative happened when the country voted to leave you need to read this:

140+ factual, fully-sourced examples of the impact Brexit is already having on the UK. Jobs going, investment drying up, companies moving assets to the EU, or redomiciling.

But it's all OK. Post Brexit we can negotiate a FTA with the USA where they Take Control and dictate the terms.

moto748
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by moto748 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:05 pm

Just one more general point on 'sovereignty'.

Every single time a government (any govt) signs any international treaty, whether it's a FTA trade deal, or membership of the EU, or even NATO, they sacrifice some sovereignty. Currently in the world economy, there are three massive trading blocs: the US, China, and the EU. Separated from the EU, we will *not* be equal trading partners, as some breezily insist. This is no longer the 19th century, we will be bullied mercilessly by Trump (as he has already made clear). A possible change of government in the US *might* bring in a president slightly more sympathetic to the UK, but we can't count on it. Right now, with Trump planning a trade war with China, the last thing we need is to be cast adrift on the unforgiving tides of a turbulent world economy.

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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:46 pm

moto748 wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:05 pm
Just one more general point on 'sovereignty'.

Every single time a government (any govt) signs any international treaty, whether it's a FTA trade deal, or membership of the EU, or even NATO, they sacrifice some sovereignty.
This is true but the standard argument from the few Brexiteers that acknowledge this, is that outside of the EU it is the UK that gets to choose what we sovereignty we sacrifice.

We do not get to choose. We have to negotiate and post Brexit we have been promised we will have quickest trade deal with the EU ever negotiated and at the same time will be signing a huge trade deal with the USA.

The two are virtually incompatible. The US want us to accept their lower regulations in agriculture. If we do then that sector would be excluded from any FTA with the EU. So given the EU is our biggest market for agriculture what do you do? Kill off a huge part of our domestic agriculture industry or annoy the yanks by agreeing an FTA with the EU that upholds EU agriculture standards?

It gets worse for the Brexiteers. The EU FTA will be the first we negotiate. So whatever we agree with them limits what we can do elsewhere. So for example if we do agree to EU agriculture standards then that precludes us from a FTA with the USA that allows us to accept their chlorinated chicken etc.

Next Brexiteers will come to realise the EU will expect something in return for tariff free access to its markets for say, UK produced cars. It could well be maintaining existing EU rights to fish in our waters. We are in no position to tell them to sod off out of our waters and at the same time demand access to the single market.

In any sector we include in an FTA with the EU we will also have agree to maintain EU rules and regulations such as in employment so we don't undercut them with cheap or poorly regulated labour just has Japan who signed an FTA with the EU did a few weeks ago.

I can understand the average citizen not considering these things. The complexities of customs unions and trade deals never crossed my mind either until they became an issue but what gets me is our politicians are peddling the myth that we can swan around the world as if it was the 19th century knocking off FTA's all to our advantage. It's a lie. We are used to politicians being economical with the truth. Selective use of stats and whatnot but politicians have now descended into the gutter whereby I firmly believe they are knowingly lying to the public. The key phrase of the Brexit campaign "Take back control" is the greatest lie of all.

I get why Rees-Mogg does it. He's an ultra-right winger who would see the collapse of a huge part of British agriculture in the same way Thatcherites saw the collapse of coal mining. As some sort of necessary chaos and sod the consequences, the markets will sort it all out. What I can't stand is the fact he is not honest about his motives.

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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by Wintergreen » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:32 pm

DaveO wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:46 pm
moto748 wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:05 pm
Just one more general point on 'sovereignty'.

Every single time a government (any govt) signs any international treaty, whether it's a FTA trade deal, or membership of the EU, or even NATO, they sacrifice some sovereignty.
This is true but the standard argument from the few Brexiteers that acknowledge this, is that outside of the EU it is the UK that gets to choose what we sovereignty we sacrifice.

We do not get to choose. We have to negotiate and post Brexit we have been promised we will have quickest trade deal with the EU ever negotiated and at the same time will be signing a huge trade deal with the USA.

The two are virtually incompatible. The US want us to accept their lower regulations in agriculture. If we do then that sector would be excluded from any FTA with the EU. So given the EU is our biggest market for agriculture what do you do? Kill off a huge part of our domestic agriculture industry or annoy the yanks by agreeing an FTA with the EU that upholds EU agriculture standards?

It gets worse for the Brexiteers. The EU FTA will be the first we negotiate. So whatever we agree with them limits what we can do elsewhere. So for example if we do agree to EU agriculture standards then that precludes us from a FTA with the USA that allows us to accept their chlorinated chicken etc.

Next Brexiteers will come to realise the EU will expect something in return for tariff free access to its markets for say, UK produced cars. It could well be maintaining existing EU rights to fish in our waters. We are in no position to tell them to sod off out of our waters and at the same time demand access to the single market.

In any sector we include in an FTA with the EU we will also have agree to maintain EU rules and regulations such as in employment so we don't undercut them with cheap or poorly regulated labour just has Japan who signed an FTA with the EU did a few weeks ago.

I can understand the average citizen not considering these things. The complexities of customs unions and trade deals never crossed my mind either until they became an issue but what gets me is our politicians are peddling the myth that we can swan around the world as if it was the 19th century knocking off FTA's all to our advantage. It's a lie. We are used to politicians being economical with the truth. Selective use of stats and whatnot but politicians have now descended into the gutter whereby I firmly believe they are knowingly lying to the public. The key phrase of the Brexit campaign "Take back control" is the greatest lie of all.

I get why Rees-Mogg does it. He's an ultra-right winger who would see the collapse of a huge part of British agriculture in the same way Thatcherites saw the collapse of coal mining. As some sort of necessary chaos and sod the consequences, the markets will sort it all out. What I can't stand is the fact he is not honest about his motives.
It's not just politicians who are doing this. A lot of people in their 60s/70's/80's believe that the UK is "special". It may well have been in their day but now it's not. Well it is, but not in "that way".

You flatter Rees-Mogg. He's an idiot.

doc
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by doc » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:44 am

Wintergreen wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:32 pm
DaveO wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:46 pm
moto748 wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:05 pm
Just one more general point on 'sovereignty'.

Every single time a government (any govt) signs any international treaty, whether it's a FTA trade deal, or membership of the EU, or even NATO, they sacrifice some sovereignty.
This is true but the standard argument from the few Brexiteers that acknowledge this, is that outside of the EU it is the UK that gets to choose what we sovereignty we sacrifice.

We do not get to choose. We have to negotiate and post Brexit we have been promised we will have quickest trade deal with the EU ever negotiated and at the same time will be signing a huge trade deal with the USA.

The two are virtually incompatible. The US want us to accept their lower regulations in agriculture. If we do then that sector would be excluded from any FTA with the EU. So given the EU is our biggest market for agriculture what do you do? Kill off a huge part of our domestic agriculture industry or annoy the yanks by agreeing an FTA with the EU that upholds EU agriculture standards?

It gets worse for the Brexiteers. The EU FTA will be the first we negotiate. So whatever we agree with them limits what we can do elsewhere. So for example if we do agree to EU agriculture standards then that precludes us from a FTA with the USA that allows us to accept their chlorinated chicken etc.

Next Brexiteers will come to realise the EU will expect something in return for tariff free access to its markets for say, UK produced cars. It could well be maintaining existing EU rights to fish in our waters. We are in no position to tell them to sod off out of our waters and at the same time demand access to the single market.

In any sector we include in an FTA with the EU we will also have agree to maintain EU rules and regulations such as in employment so we don't undercut them with cheap or poorly regulated labour just has Japan who signed an FTA with the EU did a few weeks ago.

I can understand the average citizen not considering these things. The complexities of customs unions and trade deals never crossed my mind either until they became an issue but what gets me is our politicians are peddling the myth that we can swan around the world as if it was the 19th century knocking off FTA's all to our advantage. It's a lie. We are used to politicians being economical with the truth. Selective use of stats and whatnot but politicians have now descended into the gutter whereby I firmly believe they are knowingly lying to the public. The key phrase of the Brexit campaign "Take back control" is the greatest lie of all.

I get why Rees-Mogg does it. He's an ultra-right winger who would see the collapse of a huge part of British agriculture in the same way Thatcherites saw the collapse of coal mining. As some sort of necessary chaos and sod the consequences, the markets will sort it all out. What I can't stand is the fact he is not honest about his motives.
It's not just politicians who are doing this. A lot of people in their 60s/70's/80's believe that the UK is "special". It may well have been in their day but now it's not. Well it is, but not in "that way".

You flatter Rees-Mogg. He's an idiot.
Stop insulting idiots. :D

morley pie eater
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by morley pie eater » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:06 pm

From Jeremy Corbyn's speech in Wakefield today:
We are now two and a half years on from the EU referendum and we are finally reaching the moment when the House of Commons will have its say on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

In those two and a half years many of the most pressing problems facing people in their daily lives, here in Yorkshire and across the country, have been ignored or relegated to the back of the queue by a Conservative Party consumed by its own internal battles over Brexit.

Years of Tory failure have left our society more divided than ever:

Poverty is growing, homelessness is up, personal debt is rising and crime is up too.

The truth is, the real divide in our country is not between those who voted to Remain in the EU and those who voted to Leave. It is between the many – who do the work, who create the wealth and pay their taxes, and the few – who set the rules, who reap the rewards and so often dodge taxes.

The Conservative Party’s main concern, as ever is to protect the interests of the few and is prepared to set everybody else against each other divide and rule style to stay in power
.

He later continued:
I would put it like this: if you’re living in Tottenham you may well have voted to Remain.

You’ve got high bills rising debts. You’re in insecure work. You struggle to make your wages stretch and you may be on universal credit, and forced to access food banks.

You’re up against it.

If you’re living in Mansfield, you are more likely to have voted to Leave.

You’ve got high bills, rising debts, you’re in insecure work, you struggle to make your wages stretch and you may be on universal credit and forced to access food banks.

You’re up against it.

But you’re not against each other.

People across the country, whether they voted Leave or Remain know that the system isn’t working for them.

Some see the EU as a defence against insecurity and hostility. Others see the EU as part of an establishment that plunged them into insecurity and hostility in the first place.

But it’s the failed system rigged against the many to protect the interests of the few that is the real cause of inequality and insecurity whether it’s in Tottenham or Mansfield.

And, the real solution is to transform Britain to work in the interests of the vast majority by challenging the entrenched power of a privileged elite.
Read the whole speech here:

https://labour.org.uk/press/jeremy-corb ... wakefield/

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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by Mike » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:55 pm

He's basically saying here that he doesn't really care if we leave or stay, its other stuff that's important isn't he? This is as close to honestly stating his opinion as we've got so far. I reckon his strategy is to go with a leave solution that is as easy to implement as possible and then move on.

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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:41 pm

I have read it. It would have been a great speech if we were in general election campaign and Brexit had not happened.

Unfortunately it did and trying to switch the narrative to inequality isn't going to fix anything though what he has to say about inequality itself is spot on.

In some ways therefore the speech was pointless. It is what Labour will actually do next that is the issue and at the moment the policy is as it was before he spoke. General Election preferable, still leave the EU if Labour win one but on cakeism terms, peoples vote if there is no election.

If Corbyn gets his wish for an election there is only one way he is going to win it and that is to offer a vote on any deal to leave the EU he can negotiate. Polls have shown if he doesn't remain Labour voters may well desert the party leaving it with a lower percentage of the vote than when Michael Foot was leader.

The worst bit of the speech was where it says we can't ignore the 17m leave voters as if he is blind to the possibility many may have changed their minds in light of the reality we have before us. It's his excuse not to favour another vote and in this he is just as bad as May who forever bangs on about the "will of the people" as if only 17m people live in the UK. He is no different on that score.

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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by moto748 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:51 pm

The difficulty is, as Stephen Bush rightly says today,


But the problem for Corbyn is that it is hard to see how the Brexit crisis can be resolved in a way that allows Labour to pivot back to talking about how lacklustre our economic performance has been and the shabby condition of the public realm without having alienated somebody. Whatever happens, Corbyn risks either being painted as the man who frustrated Brexit or the man who facilitated it, and both carry a good chance of knocking him out of general election contention.

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