Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

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Wintergreen
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Joined: Wed May 20, 2015 2:13 pm

Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by Wintergreen » Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:28 pm

I was asked this on the other forum. What facts do I have.

Well given it's not happened yet, facts are a little hard to come by. However, there are clues.

1. Firstly the value of sterling has dropped. Significantly. I have been made worse off as my holiday cost me more, as has anyone who has visited the Eurozone this summer.

2. Related note- inflation. Britain imports significanly more goods than it exports. As the pound loses value, imported goods cost more, prices go up.

The above are facts.

More worrying is the effect on the London financial services that Brexit might have. London subsidises the rest of the UK, especially Northern ex-Industrial towns such as Wigan.

If London loses a significant amount of it's Financial service revenue (e.g. it's role in clearing currency), then the taps will start to be turned off, or at least down.

The Wigan council will no doubt cry "Tory cuts", a large amount of the Wigan public will no doubt believe them, a significant portion of which, if the demographic stats are to be believed, voted to leave the EU. The irony is not lost on some of us.

The council will have three options, raise local taxes, e.g. council tax, reduce spending e.g. close down libraries, reduce waste collection, or both.

Of course this is only the local effect. On a national scale it wil mean less money for public spending. NHS, Roads, Infrastructure, defence etc etc


There are lot of things wrong with the EU, but to think it's all going to be rosy is, imo, way off the mark.

Now, of course a lot of these things might be avoided. Britain "could" be better off outside the EU.

The first 2 points are facts, and at the moment we are poorer as a result of last year's vote.

pedro
Posts: 4039
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 9:37 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by pedro » Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:23 pm

Wintergreen wrote:I was asked this on the other forum. What facts do I have.

Well given it's not happened yet, facts are a little hard to come by. However, there are clues.

1. Firstly the value of sterling has dropped. Significantly. I have been made worse off as my holiday cost me more, as has anyone who has visited the Eurozone this summer.

2. Related note- inflation. Britain imports significanly more goods than it exports. As the pound loses value, imported goods cost more, prices go up.

The above are facts.

More worrying is the effect on the London financial services that Brexit might have. London subsidises the rest of the UK, especially Northern ex-Industrial towns such as Wigan.

If London loses a significant amount of it's Financial service revenue (e.g. it's role in clearing currency), then the taps will start to be turned off, or at least down.

The Wigan council will no doubt cry "Tory cuts", a large amount of the Wigan public will no doubt believe them, a significant portion of which, if the demographic stats are to be believed, voted to leave the EU. The irony is not lost on some of us.

The council will have three options, raise local taxes, e.g. council tax, reduce spending e.g. close down libraries, reduce waste collection, or both.


Of course this is only the local effect. On a national scale it wil mean less money for public spending. NHS, Roads, Infrastructure, defence etc etc


There are lot of things wrong with the EU, but to think it's all going to be rosy is, imo, way off the mark.

Now, of course a lot of these things might be avoided. Britain "could" be better off outside the EU.

The first 2 points are facts, and at the moment we are poorer as a result of last year's vote.
theyve been doing this for years now
http://www.speedtest.net/result/1857407490.png

DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:47 pm

pedro wrote:
Wintergreen wrote:
The council will have three options, raise local taxes, e.g. council tax, reduce spending e.g. close down libraries, reduce waste collection, or both.
theyve been doing this for years now
They have as have all councils as a direct result of the Government's (ideologically driven) Austerity policy. Nothing to do with Brexit.

What Wintergreen is arguing is that we will see the need for further cuts as we become poorer as a nation due to Brexit. I think this is bound to happen. Banks are not waiting for Brexit to actually happen, they are already setting up new offices in places like Dublin and Frankfurt to transfer business to which means jobs moving and the employees no longer paying tax here.

pedro
Posts: 4039
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 9:37 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by pedro » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:10 pm

DaveO wrote:
pedro wrote:
Wintergreen wrote:
The council will have three options, raise local taxes, e.g. council tax, reduce spending e.g. close down libraries, reduce waste collection, or both.
theyve been doing this for years now
They have as have all councils as a direct result of the Government's (ideologically driven) Austerity policy. Nothing to do with Brexit.

What Wintergreen is arguing is that we will see the need for further cuts as we become poorer as a nation due to Brexit. I think this is bound to happen. Banks are not waiting for Brexit to actually happen, they are already setting up new offices in places like Dublin and Frankfurt to transfer business to which means jobs moving and the employees no longer paying tax here.
Not government cuts but the localisation act. The councils are responsible for themselves now and raising their own money and they manage themselves. Wigan has over 100 million in reserves not too shabby.
http://www.speedtest.net/result/1857407490.png

Wandering Warrior
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other...

Post by Wandering Warrior » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:33 pm

We'll be ok? :lol:
When John Byrom plays on snow, he doesn't leave any footprints - Jimmy Armfield

Wes
Posts: 2009
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other...

Post by Wes » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:37 pm

London is one of the biggest financial cities in the world, English is the number 1 business language nothing will change.

The pound is low due to scaremongering here and the eu trying to be difficult. When we are trading with other countries outside the eu our economy and confidence will grow.

The eu sell more to us than we to them do you think Audi, BMW, Mercedes, VW etc etc will want tariffs on trade? If there are we can buy cars (using this as an example) from outside the eu then who will be feeling the squeeze us or Germany?

Bare in mind at the moment we can't sign agreements with anyone outside the eu as we haven't officially left so the Eu can try to squeeze us however when everything is signed if they continue to try and bully us we can buy sell elsewhere.

Eu beuracrats are not elected hmm strange when they have all the power, they are sh1tting themselves of us leaving I bet they'd wished they give Cameron more when he went cap in hand!

In a divorce (their reference to brexit not ours) everything is combined and split down the middle soooooooo let's add every eu asset up and take our percentage owed that would far outweigh this daft number they say we need to pay!

People don't like change but how about it's happening so why not get behind it and offer some suggestions of making it better rather than remoaning.
[url]http://www.treetechsolutions.co.uk[/url]

Wandering Warrior
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other...

Post by Wandering Warrior » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:21 pm

I think it's best to bury my head in the sand and imagine it won't happen?
After all the pound has gone down because of scaremongering and wrinkly coffin dodgers who voted for it aren't bothered now because twelve months down the line they're looking at the lid!
In fact there might be a massive injection of millions into the NHS after all?
Perhaps Dr Fox and Boris Bull$#1€ haven't sacrificed the country for their own gain?
And yet a little worm has said we'll be OK!
I wonder if it was the same worm that told secrets in the schoolyard?
I do hope all this doesn't affect my pension and savings and the price of coca cola and twirls?
When John Byrom plays on snow, he doesn't leave any footprints - Jimmy Armfield

DaveO
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Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2002 5:32 pm

Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:11 am

pedro wrote:
DaveO wrote:
pedro wrote: theyve been doing this for years now
They have as have all councils as a direct result of the Government's (ideologically driven) Austerity policy. Nothing to do with Brexit.

What Wintergreen is arguing is that we will see the need for further cuts as we become poorer as a nation due to Brexit. I think this is bound to happen. Banks are not waiting for Brexit to actually happen, they are already setting up new offices in places like Dublin and Frankfurt to transfer business to which means jobs moving and the employees no longer paying tax here.
Not government cuts but the localisation act. The councils are responsible for themselves now and raising their own money and they manage themselves. Wigan has over 100 million in reserves not too shabby.
So now councils have a magic money tree of their own? Who knew!

I think you are confusing the localism act which came in in 2011 which in theory gave local authorities more devolved power over things like housing with the decision by Osborne in 2016 to scrap the local authority grant by 2020. They are two different things and the government has been undermining localism ever since it introduced it anyway.

The reality is rather different:

http://ig.ft.com/sites/2015/local-cuts- ... ZE08000010

The fact is Osbornes decision in 2016 to end the local government grant by 2020 and replace it by allowing councils to increase council tax by 2% a year and keep 100% instead of 50% of business rates leaves a huge hole in local government finances for many areas. It does not give them the ability to raise enough of their own money to plug the gap. So that by any measure, is a cut.

If you live in a poor area with little revenue from business rates your council is stuffed. Previously the 50% of business rates taken away was pooled to so this didn't happen.

In addition central government still dictates what councils can and cannot spend money on. They have next to no control of social housing for example as a direct result of the 2016 Housing and Planning Act which gives the secretary of state direct control over most aspects of social housing and totally undermines the powers councils were supposed to get as a result of the 2011 localism act.

All the decision to end the local authority grant does is force cuts on councils. They lose the central grant and can't raise enough revenue to make up the difference yet must implement central government policy in many areas that they have no control over. So the government is still telling them how to spend the money.

“Even if councils stopped filling in potholes, maintaining parks, closed all children’s centres, libraries, museums, leisure centres and turned off every street light, they will not have saved enough money to plug the financial black hole they face by 2020.”

From here:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ng-review

DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other...

Post by DaveO » Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:11 pm

Wes wrote:London is one of the biggest financial cities in the world, English is the number 1 business language nothing will change.
It is already changing. Like I said, banks are already moving operations out of the UK. This is happening now. Do you deny it?
The pound is low due to scaremongering here and the eu trying to be difficult. When we are trading with other countries outside the eu our economy and confidence will grow.
The value of the pound is low because it reflects the markets view of our economy going forward. The fact it has gone down and failed to recover has already cost you personally anyway. Get used to it.
The eu sell more to us than we to them do you think Audi, BMW, Mercedes, VW etc etc will want tariffs on trade? If there are we can buy cars (using this as an example) from outside the eu then who will be feeling the squeeze us or Germany?
Not this childish argument again. It really is economics for dummies and shows a total lack of understanding of how trade agreements work. First off - they don't care. They put the integrity of the single market above the balance sheet of BMW. There are 26 other countries in the EU who don't make BMW's who have no vested interest giving us special deals to help German car makers.

We could if we wanted to (and the EU agreed) decide that we have tariff free trade on the automotive sector with the EU. If we do then we must due to WTO rules, offer zero tariffs to all other countries on cars. Currently duty on imported cars ranges from 0% to 200%. Conclude a zero tariff deal with the EU and bang goes the chance to charge higher duty where we see fit. So much for taking back control. It is being IN the EU that has given us variable tariffs.

We'd have to do this for components as well because we only make something like 41% of the components on cars made here. We import the rest, mostly from the EU.

Concluding such sector by sector trade agreements will have to occur for any sector for which we want seamless trade with the EU. Those sectors we do not do this for will face WTO tariffs but more importantly customs controls as we will be outside the customs union. Which for some sectors such as Agriculture could just see an outright ban on UK exports.
Bare in mind at the moment we can't sign agreements with anyone outside the eu as we haven't officially left so the Eu can try to squeeze us however when everything is signed if they continue to try and bully us we can buy sell elsewhere.
So come on then, explain to me how post-brexit we will maintain our trade with the EU (I assume you are not daft enough to think we just walk away from it) while at the same time concluding separate deals with third countries? Do you have slightest idea what the implications of that are?

As soon as we conclude any deal with a third country that doesn't comply with the rules and regulations of the EU as defined in the customs union, we become a third country to the EU. Customs controls go up (regardless of tariffs or not).
Eu beuracrats are not elected hmm strange when they have all the power, they are sh1tting themselves of us leaving I bet they'd wished they give Cameron more when he went cap in hand!
They are not shititng themseleves. Not in the slightest.
In a divorce (their reference to brexit not ours) everything is combined and split down the middle soooooooo let's add every eu asset up and take our percentage owed that would far outweigh this daft number they say we need to pay!
Are you for real? I mean honestly where do you dream this crap up? This is just another example of the fantasy world you live in. I actually think because it seems logical to you that this happens that you think it is actually a possibility. The mind boggles it really does. This is the trouble with most brexit voters. They think it is their own personal view of the world that they voted for and because they think it is right and proper X happens then X will happen.
People don't like change but how about it's happening so why not get behind it and offer some suggestions of making it better rather than remoaning.
Get behind the biggest act of economic self harm foisted on the country by the deluded duped by a bunch of bare faced liars? No thanks. Leavers have been moaning since 1973. Get used to it.

Offer some suggestion to make it better? Here's one. Don't leave the customs union. There, done it. Who should I take it to? David Davis? Theresa May? I bet they can't wait for that.

Why are you making silly comments saying we do this? It's just the same as I read on other forums where brexiteers tell us to "get behind the country" as if that actually means anything tangible. Doing what exactly? Buy a BMW to help persuade the Germans to play nice in the negotiations?

jobo
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other...

Post by jobo » Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:39 pm

They do think it was their own personal view they voted for.

Great post DaveO.


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