Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

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DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:20 pm

Caboosegg wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:51 am
Scotland pushing for a second ref due to brexit.

Little britan is happeneing 😂.
If the hard brexiteers get their way I think when it comes down to it Scotland would not vote to the leave the UK. Why? Well with England outside of the EU and Scotland within it you end up with a hard border between England and Scotland and I think that would be too much for many in Scotland to accept.

Scottish independence is nuts anyway for the same reason the UK leaving the EU is nuts. So totally integrated and interdependent with most of the economic activity going cross border to England unpicking that is just as hard as leaving the EU. A hard border with England outside the EU just makes that even harder.

It's pretty obvious the SNP think pro-remain Scotland will vote for independence so they can regain EU membership and with Brexit uppermost in the mind at the moment polls might even support that view but I think once the campaigning got underway and the issues were brought out (again) it is not a forgone conclusion they would vote for independence.

In theory the UK remaining in the EU makes it easier for Scotland to leave the Union but if Brexit does not occur then I think the SNP's reason to seek another referendum vanishes anyway.

Wiganer Ted
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by Wiganer Ted » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:29 pm

Come 2023 I've thought for some time that the republicans in N. Ireland will push for a referendum on unification. With it being 100 years since the 26 counties broke from the UK the political will and emotion generated will bring a demand for a referendum. They reckon the in built British majority of 100 years ago is no more with a republican majority now in N Ireland.
Should they succeed then a Scottish independence referendum would seem inevitable.
I'd have thought the SNP would have waited until after 2023 though.

doc
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by doc » Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:45 pm

It's somewhat ironic that dumb decisions by PMs who were/are leaders of The Conservative and Unionist Party (to give them their full name), may lead to the break up of The Union.

DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:25 pm

Wiganer Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:29 pm
Come 2023 I've thought for some time that the republicans in N. Ireland will push for a referendum on unification. With it being 100 years since the 26 counties broke from the UK the political will and emotion generated will bring a demand for a referendum. They reckon the in built British majority of 100 years ago is no more with a republican majority now in N Ireland.
Should they succeed then a Scottish independence referendum would seem inevitable.
I'd have thought the SNP would have waited until after 2023 though.
I don't think there will be a referendum so soon. For one thing the Irish Government isn't keen on inheriting a large Unionist population and even if there was a referendum that voted for unification, there would probably be a civil war. The Unionists in N.I. would never accept it. That emotion of the 100 year anniversary cuts both ways.

I think the republican majority would have to be much greater than it is to stave off something like that and trying to go for it when there was the 100 year anniversary is waving a red rag at a bull and just asking the Unionists to crack out the rifles.

morley pie eater
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by morley pie eater » Tue May 14, 2019 3:41 pm

Wiganer Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:29 pm
Come 2023 I've thought for some time that the republicans in N. Ireland will push for a referendum on unification. With it being 100 years since the 26 counties broke from the UK the political will and emotion generated will bring a demand for a referendum. They reckon the in built British majority of 100 years ago is no more with a republican majority now in N Ireland.
Should they succeed then a Scottish independence referendum would seem inevitable.
I'd have thought the SNP would have waited until after 2023 though.
I don't think a republican majority is the main factor. Since joining the EU, Eire has been transformed from a poor, backward-looking religion-dominated state, to a rich, modern one.

As the UK seems to be heading in the opposite direction (RoI is already ahead of us on per capita income), and as religious affiliation in the North loosens, Unionists will increasingly vote for union with "the south". Witness the number of unionists applying for dual nationality to keep EU citizenship.

DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Tue May 14, 2019 4:23 pm

morley pie eater wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 3:41 pm
Wiganer Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:29 pm
Come 2023 I've thought for some time that the republicans in N. Ireland will push for a referendum on unification. With it being 100 years since the 26 counties broke from the UK the political will and emotion generated will bring a demand for a referendum. They reckon the in built British majority of 100 years ago is no more with a republican majority now in N Ireland.
Should they succeed then a Scottish independence referendum would seem inevitable.
I'd have thought the SNP would have waited until after 2023 though.
I don't think a republican majority is the main factor. Since joining the EU, Eire has been transformed from a poor, backward-looking religion-dominated state, to a rich, modern one.

As the UK seems to be heading in the opposite direction (RoI is already ahead of us on per capita income), and as religious affiliation in the North loosens, Unionists will increasingly vote for union with "the south". Witness the number of unionists applying for dual nationality to keep EU citizenship.
That doesn't prove anything other than they want to retain their EU citizenship (and that any who are doing that who voted Leave in the referendum are a bunch of hypocrites) . If they had been applying for dual nationality in droves before the UK voted to leave the EU then that could be said to show a desire for unification.

morley pie eater
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by morley pie eater » Tue May 14, 2019 5:13 pm

DaveO wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 4:23 pm
morley pie eater wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 3:41 pm
Wiganer Ted wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:29 pm
Come 2023 I've thought for some time that the republicans in N. Ireland will push for a referendum on unification. With it being 100 years since the 26 counties broke from the UK the political will and emotion generated will bring a demand for a referendum. They reckon the in built British majority of 100 years ago is no more with a republican majority now in N Ireland.
Should they succeed then a Scottish independence referendum would seem inevitable.
I'd have thought the SNP would have waited until after 2023 though.
I don't think a republican majority is the main factor. Since joining the EU, Eire has been transformed from a poor, backward-looking religion-dominated state, to a rich, modern one.

As the UK seems to be heading in the opposite direction (RoI is already ahead of us on per capita income), and as religious affiliation in the North loosens, Unionists will increasingly vote for union with "the south". Witness the number of unionists applying for dual nationality to keep EU citizenship.
That doesn't prove anything other than they want to retain their EU citizenship (and that any who are doing that who voted Leave in the referendum are a bunch of hypocrites) . If they had been applying for dual nationality in droves before the UK voted to leave the EU then that could be said to show a desire for unification.
So an educated, sophisticated millennial is going to vote for Arlene Foster because their grandparents are Presbyterians? I think not.

Time will tell, Dave.

fozzieskem
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by fozzieskem » Wed May 15, 2019 2:15 pm

And so yet again the clueless Mrs May will bring the bill back to be voted down again in June,how many times do we have to go through this

DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Wed May 15, 2019 2:39 pm

morley pie eater wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 5:13 pm
DaveO wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 4:23 pm
morley pie eater wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 3:41 pm


I don't think a republican majority is the main factor. Since joining the EU, Eire has been transformed from a poor, backward-looking religion-dominated state, to a rich, modern one.

As the UK seems to be heading in the opposite direction (RoI is already ahead of us on per capita income), and as religious affiliation in the North loosens, Unionists will increasingly vote for union with "the south". Witness the number of unionists applying for dual nationality to keep EU citizenship.
That doesn't prove anything other than they want to retain their EU citizenship (and that any who are doing that who voted Leave in the referendum are a bunch of hypocrites) . If they had been applying for dual nationality in droves before the UK voted to leave the EU then that could be said to show a desire for unification.
So an educated, sophisticated millennial is going to vote for Arlene Foster because their grandparents are Presbyterians? I think not.

Time will tell, Dave.
Eh? What has voting for Arlene Foster got to do with it? Voting for Arlene Foster is not the same as voting to remain part of the UK in a referendum on Irish Unification.

In any case the DUP and UUP just won more seats than Sinn Fein and the SDLP in the local elections. Unionism does not seem to be out of fashion just yet.

DaveO
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Re: Why we will be worse off through Brexit (Question from other forum)

Post by DaveO » Wed May 15, 2019 2:43 pm

fozzieskem wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 2:15 pm
And so yet again the clueless Mrs May will bring the bill back to be voted down again in June,how many times do we have to go through this
Latest news/rumour is Labour might abstain which would see it pass. An abstention would lead to the bill getting a second reading, with the key vote effectively postponed until MPs voted on the amended bill at third reading. That means MP's could vote on amendments from a custom union to a second vote or whatever but it does mean Labour would be trying to craft its view of Brexit via amendments rather than through an agreement with the government on a deal.

EDIT: Now they are saying they won't be abstaining. Clear as mud as ever.

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