People are just fecking mental!

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DaveO
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by DaveO » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:44 pm

On whether the Chinese are fiddling the figures there is a graph the FT published that shows they aren’t.

It’s a graph of the rate rate of infection per-day going forward after each country has hit 100 cases. As the days pass the trajectory of the western nations are remarkably similar to each other. It’s also remarkably similar to what China reported.

The only places that buck the trend are South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong. All adopted extreme measures much quicker than Chins or the west.

All this suggests the Chinese have been reporting accurate figures as the infection rate western countries now see is mirroring the Chinese experience. If they had been lying with their reported figures they would be an outlier compared to those other countries.

Remember this is data the Chinese have already reported given they are many more days into the problem. So they can’t fiddle it to match the data being reported by western countries.

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moto748
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by moto748 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:14 pm

Good info there.

Richymac
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by Richymac » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:40 pm

Wonder how North Korea are doing?

josie andrews
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by josie andrews » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:34 am

Richymac wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:40 pm
Wonder how North Korea are doing?
Chemical warfare 🤔😉
Anyone can support a team when it is winning, that takes no courage.
But to stand behind a team, to defend a team when it is down and really needs you,
that takes a lot of courage.

Caboosegg
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by Caboosegg » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:38 am

moto748 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:08 pm
Who to believe, eh? The experts across the world who have spent lifetimes studying these diseases, or some bloke on the internet who reckons it's nothing much to worry about? Even Trump and Johnson, for all their woefulness, aren't saying that.
We are English we are fed up of all the facts and experts ;)
The Turkeys voted for Christmas.

A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves and traitors are not victims... but accomplices

George Orwell

Caboosegg
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by Caboosegg » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:38 am

Richymac wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:40 pm
Wonder how North Korea are doing?
Self isolation.
The Turkeys voted for Christmas.

A people that elect corrupt politicians, imposters, thieves and traitors are not victims... but accomplices

George Orwell

thegimble
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by thegimble » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:57 am

Best info for each country I find is this site

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

China for instance has a Death rate of i believe 3.8 percent which from Covid i think its around 3.3% for common influenza and pneumonia. China last 2 days no new cases and had 22 previous 2 which were 20 from people flying in and instantly isolated. With fewer dying in China now and more recovering the % will drop further. As their medical care is not as good as the west then i suggest the death rate from Covid will be around the same as for flu/pneumonia. I wonder this week how many have died from the flu here. Can not find figures for it. Death rate is high in the west as the people cured have not been released due to minimum of 2 weeks to clear.

Now people will say well its China but South Korea is headed in the same way as are other regions of the world.

Think of this Italy on lockdown and its getting worse. If lockdown is going to work then shut London and all major cities down. Lock regions clear down to stop people coming with it here. Allow freight in and out only. Johnson is doing half measures. As a gamer will say he is working of his Finance/death rate.

Just seen DaveO graph exactly what I am seeing with the figures in the charts I linked

morley pie eater
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by morley pie eater » Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:13 pm

I agree with DaveO (only said that once before!)

Not true that Chinese government or Communist party tried to cover up initial outbreak in Wuhan. The local officials did, probably out of fear, but once the national government became aware, they moved quickly (new hospitals, massive test numbers, lockdowns etc.)

Then again, "stats are rubbish" :D

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Mike
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by Mike » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:14 pm

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Italy's mortality rate is 8% right now. Just shows what can happen when health systems get overwhelmed. I just hope they've not been testing many people and there's loads of unconfirmed cases that will bring the mortality rate into the 1% range.

thegimble
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Re: People are just fecking mental!

Post by thegimble » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:25 pm

Its is high but 35k have mild and below symptoms. Rate percentage will drop just as it will do world wide. Itaky has 2600 in serious condition.

Revovery takes 14 days and above. Its 1 death too many.

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