Super League’s 12th club to be announced on Monday

[Mike]

Seriously, it should be Featherstone. They would have been promoted if Toronto had not been eligble last time which is turned out they were not in hindsight.

[Nezza Faz]

Seriously, it should be Featherstone. They would have been promoted if Toronto had not been eligble last time which is turned out they were not in hindsight.

Toulouse were top of the Championship Mike when the season got pulled, so they have the credentials plus a superb stadium, and a large city to draw off. I would think a Toulouse v Catalans derby would attract 20,000 capacity. Apart from this, they have since recruited some proper talent which would get them into Super League next season, if they get rejected this time (by the M62 chums !).

[Mike]

Seriously, it should be Featherstone. They would have been promoted if Toronto had not been eligble last time which is turned out they were not in hindsight.

Toulouse were top of the Championship Mike when the season got pulled, so they have the credentials plus a superb stadium, and a large city to draw off. I would think a Toulouse v Catalans derby would attract 20,000 capacity. Apart from this, they have since recruited some proper talent which would get them into Super League next season, if they get rejected this time (by the M62 chums !).

They'd only played 5 games.

You can't take into account potential benefits for people outside the M62 corridor! Thats not in the spirit of the league.

[EagleEyePie]

Trying to work out who has 'earned' the right to be the 12th Super League club is somewhat impossible given no one has actually earned it.

If you go off the on field performances then the strongest candidates are probably Featherstone, Leigh and Toulouse. The problem is that's not what the selection process is considering and the waters get muddy from that point.

The criteria was clearly drawn up specifically so that Bradford could apply. It's naïve to think anything else. A top 6 finish as part of the criteria when the Championship hasn't operated a top 6 playoffs. No insolvency events since January 2018? It's pretty embarrassing if not having an insolvency event in 3 years is what you'd consider a strength. At the very least any sensible person would set the limit at 5 years.

Based on the criteria though Bradford do seem to have one of the strongest cases. Attendances, merchandising, social media presence etc. would seem to favour them. Everyone else can presumably see the negatives - terrible history of recent financial issues (3 administrations and 1 liquidation in the last decade), playing performances haven't been strong, assuming they play at Odsal the ground is utterly embarrassing for a professional sports competition. It seems likely though that those will be overlooked based on 'commercial potential' that's entirely based on something from 20 years ago ('Bullmania') which in some ways contributed to the financial issues.

Also, lets not forget the massive conflict of interest with the RFL owning the lease to Odsal and therefore having a vested interest in bringing Super League rugby back to the ground, and the fact that former RFL Chief Executive Nigel Wood is co-owner of Bradford.

You can't look at it without taking into consideration Toronto though, and so called 'independent' report into them commissioned by Robert Elstone. It mentioned Toronto being in a crowded market and providing limited commercial benefits for Super League.

If that is of such huge importance to Super League then picking Leigh or Featherstone would be an absolute embarrassment. When it comes to 'crowded' markets you can't get any worse than having another team in the same competition in the exact same area. The fact is that if Leigh or Featherstone do grow their fan base they will do so by eating into the market of Wigan or Castleford/Wakefield. It makes no sense commercially to select them. So if they are selected it will be based on performance which would only highlight how commercially unappealing Super League is.

One thing in Featherstone's favour though may be their chairman's outspoken opposition to Elstone. While he's been very critical of Rimmer too, there's an undeniable 'political' appeal for the RFL to want an 'ally' alongside Hetherington and McManus to push back against Super League.

So you've got York, who would seem like excellent candidates on paper. They are a stable club that have grown considerably over the last few years. They've got a decent and growing fan base. They look like a club on the up. But in terms of on-field capabilities they look the weakest of the options. They'd either have to take a risk with rapid investment in players or they'd be gone in a flash.

Toulouse would be fantastic, but Elstone has already used covid as a reason why he wouldn't want them in Super League. His attitude towards Catalans tells you all he needs to know. He doesn't want anything to do with trying to secure TV rights in France - that would actually require effort. Since there are 3 Super League representatives involved in the process I can't imagine they'd vote independently. They'll vote as a group and it won't be for Toulouse.

London's bid will be based largely on 'look at the size of London' and 'think of our potential' but the bottom line is they've been around in one form or another for years, never really grow their crowds much and never really amount to much more than relegation fodder whenever they make in into Super League.

With 3 representatives from Super League and 3 from the RFL there's a good chance they will vote as groups. Bradford would seem like a firm favourite for the RFL group. I'd say Super League would probably favour Bradford too. If it was tied then Jonathan Caine gets the deciding vote as chair. He's an avid Leeds Rhinos fan. That gives an advantage to Bradford and Featherstone should they be in that position.

If some think a lot of this comes across as cynical and assuming something underhanded or farcical must be at play, well what would you expect in rugby league?

[josie andrews]

Great post EEP

[Mike]

Would visa issues now affect Toulouse?

[morley pie eater]

Good post EEP.

I'm not sure about this:

The fact is that if Leigh or Featherstone do grow their fan base they will do so by eating into the market of Wigan or Castleford/Wakefield.

I doubt if there's any hard evidence that more than a miniscule number of fans switch teams - especially from an established SL side to a newly promoted one?

What I think tends to happen is that people stop attending, or attend less, when their team is doing badly. If a bad run goes on for long enough, the next generation may switch to a more fashionable team.

I moved to Morley in the 60s, and most RL fans here were Hunslet supporters. As they dropped away, their kids and especially grandkids became Leeds fans. Hunslet would have to start from scratch if they ever aspired to SL - it's over 50 years since Brian Gabbitas and Geoff Gunney's heyday! - but their supporters have died off more than switched teams.

In terms of support, York have a proven ability to draw new fans. They're also outside of the crowded West Yorkshire area (Cas, Fev, Wakey, Hud, Brad, Dews, Batley, Leeds, Hunslet, Fax and, to a lesser extent, Keighley).

Otherwise, and subject to due diligence on finance/management etc, I'd be tempted to go for Toulouse.

[Charriots Offiah]

Would visa issues now affect Toulouse?

No. They could just jump on one of the many small boats coming across the Channel at night.

[EagleEyePie]

Good post EEP.

I'm not sure about this:

The fact is that if Leigh or Featherstone do grow their fan base they will do so by eating into the market of Wigan or Castleford/Wakefield.

I doubt if there's any hard evidence that more than a miniscule number of fans switch teams - especially from an established SL side to a newly promoted one?

What I think tends to happen is that people stop attending, or attend less, when their team is doing badly. If a bad run goes on for long enough, the next generation may switch to a more fashionable team.

I moved to Morley in the 60s, and most RL fans here were Hunslet supporters. As they dropped away, their kids and especially grandkids became Leeds fans. Hunslet would have to start from scratch if they ever aspired to SL - it's over 50 years since Brian Gabbitas and Geoff Gunney's heyday! - but their supporters have died off more than switched teams.

In terms of support, York have a proven ability to draw new fans. They're also outside of the crowded West Yorkshire area (Cas, Fev, Wakey, Hud, Brad, Dews, Batley, Leeds, Hunslet, Fax and, to a lesser extent, Keighley).

Otherwise, and subject to due diligence on finance/management etc, I'd be tempted to go for Toulouse.

I didn't mean it in terms of taking fans from the current Super League clubs, but through competing with them for new fans. Fans who have just stopped going aren't likely to swap allegiance and clubs will be trying to encourage them to come back. It's no secret though that all Super League clubs need to start attracting new fans and it's those that I was referring to. The overwhelming majority would come from the local area. Whether it's parents accompanying kids who have started taking an interest in RL, partners of current fans who start attending or casual sports fans who get hooked. There could be many sources of new fans but ultimately most will be local, and if you have more than one club in one area they are competing for the same people.

Obviously it's not an issue if the market is big enough. Big cities can have more than one major club in the same sport. Maybe Wigan borough is more than capable of having say 15,000+ Wigan fans and 8,000+ Leigh fans but I feel it's somewhat unlikely given the current profile of the sport. If Leigh getting into Super League happens organically then there's not much you can do. When the criteria is heavily weighted towards the commercial benefits though I don't think it makes much sense.

[the pieman]

i've posted my views on this before and it really depends upon what the wider game wants to achieve, but personally i really do hope that it IS NOT Bradford this time round as that would just be corrupt. They have achieved nothing to warrant being promoted, currently do not have a ground and have one of the most inept senior executives ever to be involved with RL at their helm, so as EEP posted damned good chance as the RFL has a vested interest

I dont necessarily agree that it should be a club from the heartlands ie Leigh or Fev, but the reality is that if London, York or Toulose are pomoted then they are likely to be relegated immediately as everything is stacked against them.
If the RFL are looking to expand, then they need to franchise as they did initially with Catalan to allow them to setup, bed in and be competitive. Any club that is promoted this year is on a hiding to nothing in terms of reduced SL money, time to prepare and facing almost automatic relegation and financial difficulties.

IMO the plan should be a 3-5 year plan (or even longer) with the view to increasing from 12 to 14 clubs, but no promotion or relegation over the time period, so that the club(s) promoted are able to fully prepare for life in SL. It may not work out, as at the end of the day we still only have Wigan, Saints, Leeds and Bradford to have won SL. the whole concept of SL and a salary capped sport was to reduce the dominance of a single / couple of teams, but it hasnt served its purpose as RL works to the lowest common denominator and not the highest so everyone is brought down to the level of Wakey / Cas / salford who arent prepared to spend to the salary cap limit and vote against anything remotely expansionist for the better of the game