I think in this aussie style arrangement catalans wouldn't be playing at all. Look at the aussie open tennis.morley pie eater wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:35 pm...if we chip in 50p each on here that should cover it.
I think 5p would be enough. Even 10,000 at 5p = £500!
Season start delayed
Re: Season start delayed
Re: Season start delayed
Personally, I'm optimistic the vaccine will allow crowds to come back this year. I think a March timeline is way too optimistic though. Looking at data from Israel where they are ahead of everyone else in vaccination, you'll have to wait several weeks or even months for the vaccine effect to be seen in hospitalisation figures. Those are the ones that are going to affect how the government beings us out of lockdown. So I'd say mid to late April for some relaxation and May for crowds back? Something like that's my guess. I hope anyway!
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Re: Season start delayed
Maybe, but being seen and actually being there are two different things. That's my view and why I feel March could be see lot's of freedoms restored (including attendance at sporting events).Mike wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:39 am Personally, I'm optimistic the vaccine will allow crowds to come back this year. I think a March timeline is way too optimistic though. Looking at data from Israel where they are ahead of everyone else in vaccination, you'll have to wait several weeks or even months for the vaccine effect to be seen in hospitalisation figures. Those are the ones that are going to affect how the government beings us out of lockdown. So I'd say mid to late April for some relaxation and May for crowds back? Something like that's my guess. I hope anyway!
Although you might not see the effect immediately, a vaccine in the high risk groups (along with warmer weather) will inevitably lead to a reduction in hospital admissions. The full effect will be visible over the subsequent couple of months.
The key point is that this will happen irrespective of whether we are still in a full lockdown or not and therefore why prolong the economic, fiscal and mental agony? I don't think they will.
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Re: Season start delayed
To back up my point. These are the numbers of people who died with Covid being mentioned on the death certificate (bear in mind they could have died of other things as well as having Covid- you could get hit by a bus whilst being positive for Covid and still get included in these figures).
They are slightly out of date but the latest available from the ONS.
Deaths by age group
<1 0%
1-4 0%
5-9 0%
10-14 0%
15-19 0%
20-24 0%
25-29 0%
30-34 0%
35-39 0%
40-44 0%
45-49 1%
50-54 2%
55-59 3%
60-64 4%
65-69 6%
70-74 9%
75-79 14%
80-84 19%
85-89 20%
90+ 22%
Or to put it another way something like 90% of the deaths are over 65's.
Immunise this group and you are pretty much there in terms of risk.
Put 65 and over into an online calculator and :
Given a vaccination rate of 2,100,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 12/02/2021 and 22/02/2021.
They are slightly out of date but the latest available from the ONS.
Deaths by age group
<1 0%
1-4 0%
5-9 0%
10-14 0%
15-19 0%
20-24 0%
25-29 0%
30-34 0%
35-39 0%
40-44 0%
45-49 1%
50-54 2%
55-59 3%
60-64 4%
65-69 6%
70-74 9%
75-79 14%
80-84 19%
85-89 20%
90+ 22%
Or to put it another way something like 90% of the deaths are over 65's.
Immunise this group and you are pretty much there in terms of risk.
Put 65 and over into an online calculator and :
Given a vaccination rate of 2,100,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 12/02/2021 and 22/02/2021.
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Re: Season start delayed
I don't want to sound too negative.....but......a top epidemiologist recently said "Forget 2021"!
Wigan Saints
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Re: Season start delayed
"....pretty much there in terms of risk"...of death. But not of spread or of "long Covid" or effects short of death on under-65s.Wintergreen wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:42 am To back up my point. These are the numbers of people who died with Covid being mentioned on the death certificate (bear in mind they could have died of other things as well as having Covid- you could get hit by a bus whilst being positive for Covid and still get included in these figures).
They are slightly out of date but the latest available from the ONS.
Deaths by age group
<1 0%
1-4 0%
5-9 0%
10-14 0%
15-19 0%
20-24 0%
25-29 0%
30-34 0%
35-39 0%
40-44 0%
45-49 1%
50-54 2%
55-59 3%
60-64 4%
65-69 6%
70-74 9%
75-79 14%
80-84 19%
85-89 20%
90+ 22%
Or to put it another way something like 90% of the deaths are over 65's.
Immunise this group and you are pretty much there in terms of risk.
Put 65 and over into an online calculator and :
Given a vaccination rate of 2,100,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 12/02/2021 and 22/02/2021.
I'm not disagreeing with your figures, but I think SAGE and gov will base their decision on more than just death figures. For example, as many of the older population affected have been in care homes, that means the percentage of under 75s in hospital is relatively higher than the death rate for that age group.
From today's Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... cock-covid43% of the tens of thousands of ICU admissions since September have been people below the age of 60, and nearly 20% of admissions have been under 50.
Wigan Saints
Re: Season start delayed
.The work done on HIV allowed the work on a vaccine to take shorter amount of time...thus being prepared, I suggest you learn to read.
Re: Season start delayed
In fact, here's a recent report from the GPMB, who prepare studies for the WHO and World Bank among others, that outlines that, not only were we totally unprepared for Covid 19, but that we haven't learned the lessons and are equally unprepared for future pandemics. You might find it illuminating.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09- ... d-pandemic
Alternatively, Google "Covid 19 + unprepared" and see the opinion of every official body in the world. Then tell me again how "pretty prepared" we were
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09- ... d-pandemic
Alternatively, Google "Covid 19 + unprepared" and see the opinion of every official body in the world. Then tell me again how "pretty prepared" we were
Re: Season start delayed
Every scientific advance that's ever been made contributes. We still weren't prepared. You won't find a single reputable body that says we were.pedro wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:08 am.The work done on HIV allowed the work on a vaccine to take shorter amount of time...thus being prepared, I suggest you learn to read.
It's utterly ridiculous to suggest we were "pretty prepared".