League position predictor
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Re: League position predictor
Given Cats have now wrapped up the League Leaders Shield, what’s the chances of them travelling for the final league game against us? We could do with a week off and a 24-0 victory would be nice.
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Re: League position predictor
There are 8 teams above. It's only Hull we're nailed on to finish above, so we could still theoretically be 7th. I'll check the fixtures and report backCharriots Offiah wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:05 pmSo we are assured of a top six spot it’s just a question of where we finish, a home game beckons.morley pie eater wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:50 pm Here's the "table" updated after Magic results.
It's on the assumption that all play 2 more games, so the columns are final percentage with 0/1/2 wins. Any draws would give a different result!
We are now guaranteed to finish above Hull, as they get to 50% if they win 2/2. We get 52% minimum.
CATS: 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0
WAR: 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0
LDS: 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 47.8 / 52.2 / 57.6
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0
HKR: 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
To finish above Leeds, we have to win as many as they do. So if we beat Hull, Leeds have to win both of their matches to finish above us....including Saints away!
Wigan Saints
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Re: League position predictor
OK. To answer the question "Are we guaranteed a top 6 place?" here are the remaining fixtures that matter:
LEEDS: Saints & Hull KR
CAS: HKR & Wire
HKR: Cas & Leeds.
For worst case scenario, we assume Wigan lose both games. That means we end up with 52.0%.
We assume Leeds beat Saints (!) and Cas beat Warrington, as they're the worst results for us.
So the two critical games are HKR against Cas and Leeds.
In order for Rovers to finish above us they needs to win both, or win one and draw one.
If they win both, then Cas lose, but can still finish above us by beating Wire.
Also Leeds also lose, and can finish above us if they beat Saints.
Final percentages would be:
HKR 55.00%
Leeds 54.17%
Cas. 52.17%
Wigan 52.00%
So it's still possible for us to finish 7th, but only if we lose two, Leeds beat Saints, Cas beat Warrington and HKR beat both Cas and Leeds!!! (Or draw one and win one.)
Hope I've got that right....it all sounds very unlikely - ask your local bookie for the odds
LEEDS: Saints & Hull KR
CAS: HKR & Wire
HKR: Cas & Leeds.
For worst case scenario, we assume Wigan lose both games. That means we end up with 52.0%.
We assume Leeds beat Saints (!) and Cas beat Warrington, as they're the worst results for us.
So the two critical games are HKR against Cas and Leeds.
In order for Rovers to finish above us they needs to win both, or win one and draw one.
If they win both, then Cas lose, but can still finish above us by beating Wire.
Also Leeds also lose, and can finish above us if they beat Saints.
Final percentages would be:
HKR 55.00%
Leeds 54.17%
Cas. 52.17%
Wigan 52.00%
So it's still possible for us to finish 7th, but only if we lose two, Leeds beat Saints, Cas beat Warrington and HKR beat both Cas and Leeds!!! (Or draw one and win one.)
Hope I've got that right....it all sounds very unlikely - ask your local bookie for the odds
Wigan Saints
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Re: League position predictor
Thank you.morley pie eater wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:34 pm OK. To answer the question "Are we guaranteed a top 6 place?" here are the remaining fixtures that matter:
LEEDS: Saints & Hull KR
CAS: HKR & Wire
HKR: Cas & Leeds.
For worst case scenario, we assume Wigan lose both games. That means we end up with 52.0%.
We assume Leeds beat Saints (!) and Cas beat Warrington, as they're the worst results for us.
So the two critical games are HKR against Cas and Leeds.
In order for Rovers to finish above us they needs to win both, or win one and draw one.
If they win both, then Cas lose, but can still finish above us by beating Wire.
Also Leeds also lose, and can finish above us if they beat Saints.
Final percentages would be:
HKR 55.00%
Leeds 54.17%
Cas. 52.17%
Wigan 52.00%
So it's still possible for us to finish 7th, but only if we lose two, Leeds beat Saints, Cas beat Warrington and HKR beat both Cas and Leeds!!! (Or draw one and win one.)
Hope I've got that right....it all sounds very unlikely - ask your local bookie for the odds
Re: League position predictor
This is sterling work, morley!
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Re: League position predictor
Surely Morley hasn't come over to the dark side at last??
Regarder une fille en bikini, c'est comme avoir un revolver chargé sur sa table:
Il n'y a rien de mal a ça mais il est difficile de penser à autre chose.
Now Europe is just for holidays.
Il n'y a rien de mal a ça mais il est difficile de penser à autre chose.
Now Europe is just for holidays.
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- Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 2:01 pm
Re: League position predictor
ian.birchall wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:28 am Surely Morley hasn't come over to the dark side at last??
Wigan Saints
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Re: League position predictor
Thank you. It's light relief from trying to get Leeds City Council to refund £150+ in council tax they owe me!
Wigan Saints
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Re: League position predictor
I was wondering if Wigan would get a home gameCharriots Offiah wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:05 pmSo we are assured of a top six spot it’s just a question of where we finish, a home game beckons.morley pie eater wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:50 pm Here's the "table" updated after Magic results.
It's on the assumption that all play 2 more games, so the columns are final percentage with 0/1/2 wins. Any draws would give a different result!
We are now guaranteed to finish above Hull, as they get to 50% if they win 2/2. We get 52% minimum.
CATS: 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0
WAR: 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0
LDS: 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 47.8 / 52.2 / 57.6
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0
HKR: 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
To finish above Leeds, we have to win as many as they do. So if we beat Hull, Leeds have to win both of their matches to finish above us....including Saints away!
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Re: League position predictor
Update after Leeds' defeat:
If we beat Hull this afternoon, only Cas could possibly knock us out of 4th spot. To do that they need to beat both HKR and Wire and still rely on us losing to Cats. So we're guaranteed 5th in that case.
If we lose both of our games, we end in 52%.
For HKR to pass us, they have to win both of their games...against Cas and Leeds. That would mean Leeds finish below us, and Cas can only pass us by beating Wire. So, by my reckoning, we're now guaranteed at least 6th spot, and most likely 4th or 5th.
If we beat Hull this afternoon, only Cas could possibly knock us out of 4th spot. To do that they need to beat both HKR and Wire and still rely on us losing to Cats. So we're guaranteed 5th in that case.
If we lose both of our games, we end in 52%.
For HKR to pass us, they have to win both of their games...against Cas and Leeds. That would mean Leeds finish below us, and Cas can only pass us by beating Wire. So, by my reckoning, we're now guaranteed at least 6th spot, and most likely 4th or 5th.
Wigan Saints