Weak middles - Do the stats back it up?
Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:03 pm
Ask our fans where our weakness is and I'm sure pretty much everyone will say it's down the middle, so I thought I'd take a look at the stats and see whether they might provide a different perspective. (Spoiler: they didn't). Apologies in advance for going all Phil Clarke.
First up, lets look at the 30 'middles' who average the most metres per game in Super League, and which team they play for.
1 - Walmsley - 132m - Saints
2 - Cooper - 120m - Warrington
3 - Hill - 116m - Warrington
4 - Jones - 110m - Huddersfield
5 - Tetevano - 108m - Leeds
6 - Garcia - 102m - Catalans
7 - Taylor - 98m - Hull FC
8 - Amor - 98m - Saints
9 - Yates - 98m - Huddersfield
10 - Philbin - 97m - Warrington
11 - Sidlow - 96m - Leigh
12 - Lawrence - 95m - Huddersfield
13 - Oledzki - 94m - Leeds
14 - Massey - 93m - Castleford
15 - Cator - 90m - Hull FC
16 - Mulhern - 88m - Warrington
17 - LMS - 88m - Saints
18 - Dudson - 87m - Catalans
19 - Satae - 86m - Hull FC
20 - Bousquet - 85m - Catalans
21 - Arona - 85m - Wakefield
22 - Fifita - 84m - Wakefield
23 - Paasi - 83m - Saints
24 - Westerman - 81m - Wakefield
25 - Sao - 81m - Hull FC
26 - Kasiano - 81m - Catalans
27 - Smith - 79m - Castleford
28 - Matagi - 77m - Castleford
## - Lees - 76m - Saints (only played 2 games)
29 - Prior - 75m - Leeds
30 - Millington - 75m - Castleford
So among the top 30 metre making middles:
Saints = 4 (5 if you include Lees)
Warrington = 4
Catalan = 4
Hull FC = 4
Castleford = 4
Leeds = 3
Huddersfield = 3
Wakefield = 3
Leigh = 1
The 3 teams that don't have anyone inside the top 30 (Hull KR, Salford and Wigan) come next in the rankings:
31 - Lawler - 74m - Hull KR
32 - Ikahihifo - 73m - Salford
33 - Havard - 73m - Wigan
Early in a season a couple of decent games can skew the figures, so here's another way of looking at it. For a middle a good number of metres to make in a game would be around 80m. So which teams have the most consistent middles? (Brackets = games making 80m+/total games played this year)
Castleford - Massey (5/7), Smith (3/6)
Catalans - Bousquet (8/8), Garcia (5/8), Kasiano (5/7), Dudson (4/6)
Huddersfield - Jones (5/8), Yates (5/7), Lawrence (4/7)
Hull FC - Cator (6/8), Satae (5/8), Taylor (4/4), Sao (4/7)
Hull KR - Lawler (4/8)
Leeds - Oledzki (6/8), Tetevano (4/4), Prior (4/8)
Leigh - Sidlow (3/4), Bell (3)
Saints - Walmsley (8/8), Amor (7/8), LMS (4/8), Paasi (4/7)
Salford - Ikahihifo (3/8)
Wakefield - Arona (5/8), Fifita (4/8), Westerman (3/8)
Warrington - Hill (7/8), Cooper (6/7), Philbin (6/8), Mulhern (5/7)
Wigan - Havard (3/8)
It's pretty much the same pattern. 3 teams are represented by only 1 player each. This also shows the consistency of players like Walmsley, Amor, Bousquet, Tetevano, Taylor, Hill, Cooper.
But of course rugby league is a team game, and generally the pattern seems to be that teams will have a minimum of 2 starting props, 2 props on the bench and a 13 as their 'middles' during a game, a set of 5 middles. So here's another way to rank them.
Take the 5 highest metre making middles per team and find their average metres made per game:
1. Warrington - 95.5m
2. Saints - 95.2m
3. Huddersfield - 88.2m
4. Catalans - 82.1m
5. Hull FC - 81.8m
6. Castleford - 78.7m
7. Leeds - 74m
8. Leigh - 72.3m
9. Wakefield - 66.6m
10. Salford - 59.8m
11. Hull KR - 59.1m
12. Wigan - 56.5m (62.1m with Smithies as a middle)
So when you work it out like this, Wigan's middles make the fewest metres per game of any club in Super League. Those rankings don't seem to be too far removed from what you'd expect and you can probably pinpoint why some teams might be higher than their league position would suggest. It also proves fairly convincingly that our middles are not contributing the metres you'd expect and perhaps looks a bit worrying considering we've yet to play teams 1,2 & 3 on that list, just got battered by 4 and lost against 5 in the cup.
I've not counted Smithies as a middle because most of his big metres have come while playing at second row this year. He averages around 77m per game which, if he was playing 13 more often, would be the best of our middles.
Once we get Farrell and maybe Isa back in the pack it does strengthen the back row. Faz and Bateman average over 100m per game and Isa makes good metres too. It should get the back row back to where it's been over the last few years but it still doesn't provide much help down the middle.
First up, lets look at the 30 'middles' who average the most metres per game in Super League, and which team they play for.
1 - Walmsley - 132m - Saints
2 - Cooper - 120m - Warrington
3 - Hill - 116m - Warrington
4 - Jones - 110m - Huddersfield
5 - Tetevano - 108m - Leeds
6 - Garcia - 102m - Catalans
7 - Taylor - 98m - Hull FC
8 - Amor - 98m - Saints
9 - Yates - 98m - Huddersfield
10 - Philbin - 97m - Warrington
11 - Sidlow - 96m - Leigh
12 - Lawrence - 95m - Huddersfield
13 - Oledzki - 94m - Leeds
14 - Massey - 93m - Castleford
15 - Cator - 90m - Hull FC
16 - Mulhern - 88m - Warrington
17 - LMS - 88m - Saints
18 - Dudson - 87m - Catalans
19 - Satae - 86m - Hull FC
20 - Bousquet - 85m - Catalans
21 - Arona - 85m - Wakefield
22 - Fifita - 84m - Wakefield
23 - Paasi - 83m - Saints
24 - Westerman - 81m - Wakefield
25 - Sao - 81m - Hull FC
26 - Kasiano - 81m - Catalans
27 - Smith - 79m - Castleford
28 - Matagi - 77m - Castleford
## - Lees - 76m - Saints (only played 2 games)
29 - Prior - 75m - Leeds
30 - Millington - 75m - Castleford
So among the top 30 metre making middles:
Saints = 4 (5 if you include Lees)
Warrington = 4
Catalan = 4
Hull FC = 4
Castleford = 4
Leeds = 3
Huddersfield = 3
Wakefield = 3
Leigh = 1
The 3 teams that don't have anyone inside the top 30 (Hull KR, Salford and Wigan) come next in the rankings:
31 - Lawler - 74m - Hull KR
32 - Ikahihifo - 73m - Salford
33 - Havard - 73m - Wigan
Early in a season a couple of decent games can skew the figures, so here's another way of looking at it. For a middle a good number of metres to make in a game would be around 80m. So which teams have the most consistent middles? (Brackets = games making 80m+/total games played this year)
Castleford - Massey (5/7), Smith (3/6)
Catalans - Bousquet (8/8), Garcia (5/8), Kasiano (5/7), Dudson (4/6)
Huddersfield - Jones (5/8), Yates (5/7), Lawrence (4/7)
Hull FC - Cator (6/8), Satae (5/8), Taylor (4/4), Sao (4/7)
Hull KR - Lawler (4/8)
Leeds - Oledzki (6/8), Tetevano (4/4), Prior (4/8)
Leigh - Sidlow (3/4), Bell (3)
Saints - Walmsley (8/8), Amor (7/8), LMS (4/8), Paasi (4/7)
Salford - Ikahihifo (3/8)
Wakefield - Arona (5/8), Fifita (4/8), Westerman (3/8)
Warrington - Hill (7/8), Cooper (6/7), Philbin (6/8), Mulhern (5/7)
Wigan - Havard (3/8)
It's pretty much the same pattern. 3 teams are represented by only 1 player each. This also shows the consistency of players like Walmsley, Amor, Bousquet, Tetevano, Taylor, Hill, Cooper.
But of course rugby league is a team game, and generally the pattern seems to be that teams will have a minimum of 2 starting props, 2 props on the bench and a 13 as their 'middles' during a game, a set of 5 middles. So here's another way to rank them.
Take the 5 highest metre making middles per team and find their average metres made per game:
1. Warrington - 95.5m
2. Saints - 95.2m
3. Huddersfield - 88.2m
4. Catalans - 82.1m
5. Hull FC - 81.8m
6. Castleford - 78.7m
7. Leeds - 74m
8. Leigh - 72.3m
9. Wakefield - 66.6m
10. Salford - 59.8m
11. Hull KR - 59.1m
12. Wigan - 56.5m (62.1m with Smithies as a middle)
So when you work it out like this, Wigan's middles make the fewest metres per game of any club in Super League. Those rankings don't seem to be too far removed from what you'd expect and you can probably pinpoint why some teams might be higher than their league position would suggest. It also proves fairly convincingly that our middles are not contributing the metres you'd expect and perhaps looks a bit worrying considering we've yet to play teams 1,2 & 3 on that list, just got battered by 4 and lost against 5 in the cup.
I've not counted Smithies as a middle because most of his big metres have come while playing at second row this year. He averages around 77m per game which, if he was playing 13 more often, would be the best of our middles.
Once we get Farrell and maybe Isa back in the pack it does strengthen the back row. Faz and Bateman average over 100m per game and Isa makes good metres too. It should get the back row back to where it's been over the last few years but it still doesn't provide much help down the middle.