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League position predictor
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:41 pm
by morley pie eater
Now's the time of year to play the "where will we finish if...." game.
To save all you armchair coaches, and others, having to calculate the percentages, here are the answers to all your questions . . .
After each team below are that team's final percentages if they win 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 of their remaining 3 games:
So, for example, WIGAN: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0 / 64.0
This means that, when we have played all 25 of our league games, we'll end up with 52.0% if we win 0 of them, 56.0% if we win 1, 60.0% if we win 2 out of 3 remaining, and 64.0% in the unlikely event that we win all 3.
CATS: 78.3 / 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0 / 85.7
WAR: 59.5 / 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0 / 64.0
LDS: 45.8 / 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 43.5 / 47.8 / 52.2 / 56.5
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0 / 54.8
HKR: 40.0 / 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
Remember that these apply to the final table, not to the week-by-week percentages before the end of the season. The clue is in the word "predictor" above. I've tried to make my explanation idiot-proof, but I'm sure someone will find an error or a typo, for which I humbly apologise in advance.
It's easy to work out that for HKR to pass us, they'll have to win all 3 of their games, and we'd need to lose all 3. Similarly Cas have to win 2 more than us to finish above us. Check these out above and you'll soon get the hang of it.
Complaints about my methodology will be most welcome, as always!
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:50 pm
by CheshireWarrior
Is it like 2002/03/04 etc:
1stv2nd, 3rdv6th and 4thv5th? Or a different format?
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:25 pm
by Caboosegg
Anyone remember the flack McNamara use to get.
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:57 pm
by Wiganer Ted
That's of course unless the RFL/SL change the rules before season's end.
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:07 pm
by pedro
Caboosegg wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:25 pm
Anyone remember the flack McNamara use to get.
hes had loads of time and money, and still only won the CC
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:46 pm
by Caboosegg
pedro wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:07 pm
Caboosegg wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:25 pm
Anyone remember the flack McNamara use to get.
hes had loads of time and money, and still only won the CC
Lams had 3 years and only won a LL
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:12 am
by pedro
Caboosegg wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:46 pm
pedro wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:07 pm
Caboosegg wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:25 pm
Anyone remember the flack McNamara use to get.
hes had loads of time and money, and still only won the CC
Lams had 3 years and only won a LL
but not loads of money
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:28 am
by ian.birchall
morley pie eater wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:41 pm
Now's the time of year to play the
"where will we finish if...." game.
To save all you armchair coaches, and others, having to calculate the percentages, here are the answers to all your questions . . .
After each team below are that team's
final percentages if they win 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 of their remaining 3 games:
So, for example,
WIGAN: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0 / 64.0
This means that, when we have played all 25 of our league games, we'll end up with 52.0% if we win 0 of them, 56.0% if we win 1, 60.0% if we win 2 out of 3 remaining, and 64.0% in the unlikely event that we win all 3.
CATS: 78.3 / 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0 / 85.7
WAR: 59.5 / 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0 / 64.0
LDS: 45.8 / 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 43.5 / 47.8 / 52.2 / 56.5
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0 / 54.8
HKR: 40.0 / 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
Remember that these apply to the
final table, not to the week-by-week percentages before the end of the season. The clue is in the word "predictor" above. I've tried to make my explanation idiot-proof, but I'm sure someone will find an error or a typo, for which I humbly apologise in advance.
It's easy to work out that for HKR to pass us, they'll have to win all 3 of their games, and we'd need to lose all 3. Similarly Cas have to win 2 more than us to finish above us. Check these out above and you'll soon get the hang of it.
Complaints about my methodology will be most welcome, as always!
A lot of intricate guesswork there Morley but have you factored in the effect of the games involving both of the top 6 clubs. As I read it unless we beat the Wire at weekend we can never get in the top 3 but let's be honest do we really deserve to be in there?
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:33 am
by nathan_rugby
ian.birchall wrote: ↑Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:28 am
morley pie eater wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:41 pm
Now's the time of year to play the
"where will we finish if...." game.
To save all you armchair coaches, and others, having to calculate the percentages, here are the answers to all your questions . . .
After each team below are that team's
final percentages if they win 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 of their remaining 3 games:
So, for example,
WIGAN: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0 / 64.0
This means that, when we have played all 25 of our league games, we'll end up with 52.0% if we win 0 of them, 56.0% if we win 1, 60.0% if we win 2 out of 3 remaining, and 64.0% in the unlikely event that we win all 3.
CATS: 78.3 / 82.6 / 87.0 / 91.3
STS: 71.4 / 76.2 / 81.0 / 85.7
WAR: 59.5 / 64.3 / 69.0 / 73.8
WIG: 52.0 / 56.0 / 60.0 / 64.0
LDS: 45.8 / 50.0 / 54.2 / 58.3
CAS: 43.5 / 47.8 / 52.2 / 56.5
HULL: 40.5 / 45.2 / 50.0 / 54.8
HKR: 40.0 / 45.0 / 50.0 / 55.0
Remember that these apply to the
final table, not to the week-by-week percentages before the end of the season. The clue is in the word "predictor" above. I've tried to make my explanation idiot-proof, but I'm sure someone will find an error or a typo, for which I humbly apologise in advance.
It's easy to work out that for HKR to pass us, they'll have to win all 3 of their games, and we'd need to lose all 3. Similarly Cas have to win 2 more than us to finish above us. Check these out above and you'll soon get the hang of it.
Complaints about my methodology will be most welcome, as always!
A lot of intricate guesswork there Morley but have you factored in the effect of the games involving both of the top 6 clubs. As I read it unless we beat the Wire at weekend we can never get in the top 3 but let's be honest do we really deserve to be in there?
If we end up in the top 3 then we deserve to be there imo.
Re: League position predictor
Posted: Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:13 am
by morley pie eater
Yes, Ian, we can only finish 3rd if we win all 3 and Wire lose all 3.
Each game we win, you can cross off the lowest percentage. Each game we lose, cross off the highest. At the end of the season, you'll have our final %.
You can also work out that if we win 1 of our remaining games, we'll finish in the top 6. This is because our lowest possible percentage with 1 win is 56.0 (that's if we lose the other 2), and neither Hull or Hull KR can make 56 or more even if they win all 3.